A Logistic Curve in the SEIR Model and the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Japan

Authors

  • Takesi Saito Department of Physics and Astronomy, School of Science Kwansei Gakuin University, Sanda 669-1337, Japan
  • Kazuyasu Shigemoto Tezukayama University, Nara 631-8501, Japan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.105.13261

Keywords:

Variants of SARS-COV-2, SIR model, Epidemiology, Molecular biology

Abstract

The SEIR model is one of modified models of SIR, especially taken into account of exposed people. SEIR equations can be solved numerically, but it is hard to obtain analytically. Here, we propose some approximate solutions of SEIR equations, one of which is related with the logistic formula in Biology. As the second aim, the SEIR model is applied to the 7th-wave of COVID-19 in Japan. The basic reproduction number (α) in the SEIR model is estimated for the Omicron wave. We make use of data of the removed number  rather than that of the infective number, because the latter seems to be ambiguous. This analysis gives α=10 with γ=1 and σ=0.5.

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Published

2022-10-18

How to Cite

Saito, T., & Shigemoto, K. (2022). A Logistic Curve in the SEIR Model and the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Japan. European Journal of Applied Sciences, 10(5), 481–486. https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.105.13261

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 5 (2022): European Journal of Applied Sciences

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Takesi Saito, Kazuyasu Shigemoto

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.