Research on the prediction of financial expenditure for the assistance and support of the extremely poor in China

  • Jin Zhang Central University of Finance and Economics
Keywords: assistance and support for the extremely poor people, financial expenditure forecast, Holt index method

Abstract

Extremely poor people are the most difficult part of the poor in China, and they are also an important part of China's fight against poverty. The policy of assisting and supporting the extremely poor people has played an important role in ensuring the survival and living needs of the extremely poor people in urban and rural areas, and realizing the goal of sharing the development results for the whole people. Since 2015, the assistance and support system for the extremely poor has been disbursed separately, the financial expenditure has increased year by year, from 18.297 billion yuan to 25.930 billion yuan, and the annual financial account expenditure exceeds the budgeted expenditure every year. Therefore, it is urgent to make accurate and reasonable expectation on the financial expenditure of the relief of the extremely poor. Based on the analysis of financial support for the assistance and support of the poorest people from 2008 to 2018, this paper uses the Holt index forecast method to predict the social assistance expenditure for the next five years, and concludes that future financial needs will improve the support and assistance of the special hardship.

References

[1] Lin min gang. General theory of social assistance. Beijing: Science Press, 2017:10
[2] Wang Sibei, et al. "Over 5 Million People Benefit from National Assistance and Support System for Specially Poor People", China Youth Daily, February 18, 2016.
[3] Wang Zhikun. "China Social Assistance Development Report 2013", China Social Publishing House 2015, P60.
[4] Su Zhenyu, Long Yong, Wang Yu.Monthly Load Forecasting Method Based on Seasonal Adjustment and Holt-Winters [J] .China Management Science, 2019,27 (03): 30-40.
[5] Li Cangqi, Lu Yan.Analysis of Internet Penetration in China Based on Holt-Winters Filtering Model [J] .Statistics and Decision, 2016 (13): 90-93.
[6] Zhang Zhanbin, Feng Qiaobin, Huang Yan.Estimation of Fiscal Expenditure and Spatiotemporal Distribution of Urbanization of Rural Migrants in China [J] .Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics, 2013 (10): 1-7.
Published
2020-02-05