Evaluating the Role of Energy Demand Prediction on Energy Dependency Mitigation: A Generic System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Utilizing available renewable energy resources has been characterized as a reliable indicator to mitigate energy dependency in countries as well as securing the supplying of energy-based needs in the future. This research explores the impact of renewable energy as trustworthy resources in mitigating energy imports and how accurately predicting the energy consumption can lead to better examination of energy dependency. A system dynamics model with special aim on the role of renewable energy resources on decreasing energy dependency has been constructed. By analyzing the dynamics of the model, different scenarios of renewable energy policies are employed as interventions to be implemented and assessed in the model while investigating the applicability of renewable energies to manage national energy supply sustainably. To illustrate the benefits of renewable energy utilization, the proposed model is applied to a case study to analyze the decrease in imported energy resources from external sources. The results indicate that the system dynamics approach outperforms in predicting energy demand compared to the most commonly used techniques in energy forecasting studies and under which policies the desired level of energy dependency will be sustainably achieved.