The Arguments for a Permanent Zero Interest Rate.
Keywords:permanent zero interest rate, government borrowing, Pigou effect.
A zero interest rate regime is one where government issues a form of money which pays no interest, but does not borrow. There are three reasons for that policy.
First, most if not all the reasons given for government borrowing are hopeless.
Second, adjusting interest rates is a policy which is riddled for anomalies. E.g. in order to be able to cut interest rates, government first has to artificially raise them. But artificial adjustments to the price of anything, including the price of borrowed money does not make economic sense.
Third, the market failure which causes recessions is not the failure of interest rates to fall. It’s the failure of wages and prices to fall, which would increase the real value of base money and government debt (if there is any), which in turn would encourage spending. That’s the “Pigou effect”. If government and central bank were simply to create new base money and spend it (and/or cut taxes) in a recession, that would come to much the same as the Pigou effect. That is what might be called a “free market compliant” policy. Interest rate adjustments are not “compliant”.
Thus government should not borrow other than for very good reasons, if there are any, and artificial adjustments to interest rates should cease, except perhaps in emergencies. That, for want of a better phrase, can be described as a “permanent zero interest rate” policy. That policy is not far from the UK Labour Party’s new fiscal rule.
Dyson, B., Greenham, T., Ryan-Collins, J. & Werner, R. 2010. Towards a twenty-first century banking and monetary system.
Dyson, B., & Jackson, A. 2012. Modernising money. London. Positive Money.
Forstater, M., & Mosler, W. 2005. The natural rate of interest is zero. Journal of economic issues. 39(2), 535-542. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2005.11506832
Friedman, M. 1948. A monetary and fiscal framework for economic stability. American economic review. 17(3), 330. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1907322
Hume, D. 1742. Of public credit.
Jácome, L., & Vázquez, F. 2005. Any link between legal CB independence and inflation? evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean.
Kellerman, K. 2006. Debt financing of public investment: On a popular misinterpretation of “the golden rule of public sector borrowing.” European journal of political economy. 23(4),1088-1104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.03.006
Keynes, J. 1933. An open letter to president roosevelt.
Matthews, C. 2016. Here's how Ben Bernanke's "Helicopter Money" plan might work. Fortune. http://fortune.com/2016/04/12/bernanke-helicopter-money/
Mitchell, W.F. 2014. There is no need to issue public debt. Billyblog.
Mosler, W. 2010. Proposals for the banking system. Huffington post.
Murphy, R. 2018. The country wants and needs more government debt. Tax research UK.
Musgrave, R. 1939. The nature of budgetary balance and the case for the capital budget. American economic review. 29 (2): 260-271.
Musgrave, R.S. 2018a. A permanent zero interest rate would maximise GDP. Munich personal RePEc archive.
Musgrave, R.S. 2018b. A permanent zero interest rate would maximise GDP (second edition). Open thesis.
Rowe, N. 2012. How time travel is possible. Worthwhile Canadian initiative.
Wolf, M. 2014. Warnings from Japan for the Eurozone. Financial times. 4th November.
Wren-Lewis, S. 2018. Interest rate vs fiscal policy stabilisation. Mainly Macro.
How to Cite
Authors wishing to include figures, tables, or text passages that have already been published elsewhere are required to obtain permission from the copyright owner(s) for both the print and online format and to include evidence that such permission has been granted when submitting their papers. Any material received without such evidence will be assumed to originate from the authors.