Hydro-Climate Variability and Its Implications for Water Resource Sustainability in the Sahiwal Region of Pakistan

Abstract

Hydro-climatic variations pose significant risks to natural environment particularly water security and agri based activities in moderate-arid zones such as Sahiwal-Region, Pakistan. This main focus of this research study is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on rain fall patterns in Sahiwal region. For this task, ten years rainfall data (2014 –2023) was investigated and   shifts in rainfall events over time were computed. Finally, this study outlines the critical implications for water resource management and propose climate-adaptive interventions. During the selected study period 92014-2023, the rainfall trends exhibited significant variations, ranging from 219 mm (2021, intense drought) to 625.62 mm (2015, extreme rainfall). Statistical analysis shows mean annual rainfall of 420.3 mm with a substantial fluctuation of 115.7 mm, indicating unpredictable shifts. The coefficient of variation approximately 29% further exhibits significant yearly variations. Regression modelling predicts a slight declined in raining for 2024 to 2028, though greater deviations remain. While expediting the rainfall patterns, it was observed that about 10% of years were considered as intense dry and 20% as intense wet, marking increased hydro-climatic risk. The tenure, 2017 to 2021 exhibited extended drought years while remaining years exhibited partial recovery. The shift in trends threaten groundwater recharge, prolonged water availability and crop productivity. This study analyzes raining trends from 2014- 2023 to assess their impacts on sustainability of water resource and climate resilience.