Page 1 of 14

Discoveries in Agriculture and Food Sciences - Vol. 11, No. 5

Publication Date: October 25, 2023

DOI:10.14738/dafs.115.15443.

Abera, E., Getenet, M., & Negatu, L. (2023). Adaptive Crop Management Strategies for Sustainable Wheat Production Under

Changing Climate in Ethiopia. Discoveries in Agriculture and Food Sciences, 11(5). 01-14.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

Adaptive Crop Management Strategies for Sustainable Wheat

Production Under Changing Climate in Ethiopia

Endalew Abera

Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Mezgebu Getenet

Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Lisanework Negatu

Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Enhancing local adaptive capacities is of paramount importance to ensure the

stability of regional food production in the context of a changing climate. This study

was undertaken with the aim of identifying the most suitable crop management

strategies in response to evolving climatic conditions. Daily climate data were

sourced from the National Meteorology, while soil and crop management

information were obtained from the Adet Agricultural Research Center. Future

climate data were derived from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

(CMIP5) database within the Climate Research Programme, encompassing 20

General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The study's

temporal scope encompassed the early-term horizon of 2010-2039. The Decision

Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model was harnessed

as a computational tool to facilitate these investigations. The interactions between

sowing date and plant density were found to yield non-significant effects on wheat

yields (P>0.05). Conversely, significant effects (P<0.05) were observed in the

interactions of plant density with fertilizer rate, as well as the interactions of sowing

date with fertilizer rate, both contributing to variations in the yield of both wheat

varieties. Additionally, the simultaneous impact of three agronomic practices,

sowing date, plant density, and fertilizer rate were found to exert significant effects

(P<0.05) on wheat yields. Within this framework, a noteworthy crop management

approach emerges. Specifically, planting on June 25 with plant densities ranging

from 250 to 350 plants m-2, coupled with a fertilizer rate of 184 kg N ha-1, is

recommended as a robust strategy to optimize the yield of both Tay and Senkegna

wheat varieties. This study suggested the critical role of informed decision-making

in adapting agricultural practices to shifting climate dynamics, ensuring sustained

and enhanced crop productivity in the face of evolving environmental conditions.

Keywords: Crop Management, Climate Change, Sustainable Wheat Production, Ethiopia

Page 2 of 14

2

Discoveries in Agriculture and Food Sciences (DAFS) Vol 11, Issue 5, October- 2023

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

INTRODUCTION

Agriculture in tropical developing countries is significantly impacted by climate variability and

change [1, 2, 3]. The susceptibility of these regions to the impacts of these changes is heightened

due to the significant dependence of a substantial portion of their population on agricultural

earnings, combined with their limited ability to adapt [4]. The low adaptive capacity might be

due to a lack of resources, technology, knowledge, or infrastructure necessary to cope with and

mitigate the impacts of climate variability. The limited adoption of improved crop varieties also

contributes to low agricultural productivity [5]. Additionally, both living organisms (biotic

factors) and non-living elements (abiotic factors) such as pests, diseases, soil quality, and other

environmental factors can significantly reduce crop yields [5]. In Ethiopia, the spatial and

temporal variability of rainfall during the rainy season alter national crop production by 90–

95% [6]. Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach that includes

improving agricultural practices, promoting the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties,

enhancing infrastructure for irrigation and water management, and providing education and

resources to communities for better adaptation to changing conditions.

Climate complexity and the intricate physiological processes of crops make it challenging to

directly observe or experimentally test certain behaviors in the field. This is where crop

simulation models like the DSSAT crop model come into play [7, 8, 9]. DSSAT is composed of a

collection of crop simulation models designed to simulate the growth, development, and yield

of various crops under different conditions. These models utilize mathematical equations and

algorithms to mimic the interactions between crops, soil, climate, and management practices.

DSSAT also used to assess how different management options, such as planting dates, irrigation

schedules, and fertilizer applications, influence crop growth and yield. This information can be

invaluable for optimizing agricultural practices. Exploring potential crop management options

to optimize wheat yield under future climate conditions is an important endeavor, especially

given the challenges posed by climate variability and change. The adjustments of planting dates,

altering planting density, and optimizing fertilizer application, are all critical strategies for

enhancing crop resilience and productivity. Shifting planting dates by a few days can be a crucial

adaptation strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of enhanced temperatures and elevated CO2

levels [10]. By aligning critical stages of crop growth with more favorable climate conditions,

such as avoiding heat stress during flowering can improve overall yield potential. Altering

planting density, combined with early or late planting dates, offers an alternative approach to

maximizing crop yield. This strategy allows to optimize resource utilization, including water,

nutrients, and light, which can contribute to better crop performance [11]. The timing and level

of fertilizer application also play a pivotal role in optimizing crop yield. Increasing nitrogen (N)

fertilizer application can enhance the development of productive tillers, leading to higher grain

yields. Balancing nutrient availability with crop demand is essential for achieving optimal

results [12, 13].

The most crucial wheat varieties that commonly cultivated in the study area are Kubsa, Tay,

Senkegna, and Gassay wheat varieties [14]. The study conducted by Abera et al. [15] provided

valuable insights into the projected future climate conditions and their potential impacts on Tay

and Senkegna wheat yield in western Ethiopia. The key findings of Abera et al.'s research

highlighted the expected changes in temperature and their effects on wheat yield. According to

Page 3 of 14

3

Abera, E., Getenet, M., & Negatu, L. (2023). Adaptive Crop Management Strategies for Sustainable Wheat Production Under Changing Climate in

Ethiopia. Discoveries in Agriculture and Food Sciences, 11(5). 01-14.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/dafs.115.15443

this result, the rainfall will increase by 2-5% in 2030 to 2080 time period. Conversely, the

maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 1°C to 4.6°C, and the minimum

temperatures is also expected to rise by 0.93°C to 4.73°C by the end of 2080s [15]. This warming

trend indicated a significant temperature rise compared to the baseline, suggesting hotter

conditions in western Ethiopia. Abera et al. [15] also assessed the overall climate impact on

wheat production in western Ethiopia. The study's findings revealed that both positive and

negative wheat yield change are observed. The yield of Tay wheat is projected to increase by

0.5% to 1.3% between 2030 and 2050, while it is expected to decrease by 3% at the end of

2080s [15].Similarly, the grain yield ofSenkegna wheat is predicted to increase by 0.8% to 2.5%

[15]. While there are projected increases in certain time periods, there is also the anticipation

of decreased yield in the long term due to changing climate. Abera et al. [15] focused primarily

on how rising temperatures and climate change influenced wheat yield in western Ethiopia.

However, the investigation into potential agronomic practices to counteract these negative

impacts or optimize wheat yield was limited. The absence of exploration into potential

agronomic practices to enhance wheat yield and resilience in the context of climate change

leaves an opportunity for further study. Exploring different agronomic practices, such as

adjusting planting dates, altering planting density, and optimizing fertilizer application have the

potential to offer practical solutions to the challenges posed by climate variability and change.

These strategies could be tailored to the specific conditions of the study area and have the

potential to improve food security and livelihoods for the local communities. By addressing this

research gap, this study therefore could significantly contribute to the knowledge base for

sustainable agricultural practices in western Ethiopia and potentially serve as a foundation for

future policy decisions and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the entire study seeks to bridge

the gap in knowledge by investigating how different agronomic practices can optimize wheat

yield under future climate conditions in western Ethiopia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Description of Study Area

The study was carried out at Adet Agricultural Research Center (AARC), situated in the Amhara

Region, north western Ethiopia (Fig.1). The geographical coordinates are approximately

11°16'N latitude and 37°29'E longitude. Adet is located at an altitude of 2216 meters above

mean sea level. The area receives an average annual rainfall of 1250 mm. The annual average

maximum and minimum temperatures are 25.5°C and 9.2°C, respectively. The dominant soil

types in the area are Nitosols, Vertisols, and Luvisols [16, 17].