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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal – Vol. 11, No. 2
Publication Date: February 25, 2024
DOI:10.14738/assrj.112.16560.
Ambarawati, I. G. A. A., & Esterina, N. P. A. (2024). Cocoa Producers’ Decision on Fermenting Beans in Jembrana Regency, Bali
Province, Indonesia. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 11(2). 543-549.
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Cocoa Producers’ Decision on Fermenting Beans in Jembrana
Regency, Bali Province, Indonesia
I Gusti Agung Ayu Ambarawati
Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture,
Udayana University, Indonesia
Ni Puspa Ayu Esterina
Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture,
Udayana University, Indonesia
ABSTRACT
Cocoa bean has an important role in the agricultural economy of Indonesia for its
foreign earnings. Demand for high quality of cocoa beans is increasing fast due to
the expansion of global cocoa and chocolate market. Bali Province also plays an
important role in Indonesia’s cocoa production and export where the main cocoa
plantation lies in Jembrana Regency cultivated by small-scale farmers. Chocolate
industry requests for high quality cocoa beans from fermented cocoa for high
prices, however farmers are still reluctant to do fermentation. This study aims at
analyzing probability of farmer’s decision to ferment cocoa beans at Jembrana
Regency, Bali Province, Indonesia. Logit regression was utilized where the
dependent variable is in binary, which is the change in probability of a cocoa
producer choosing to ferment their cocoa beans, given the independent variables
included farm size, production and other occupation of farmers. The result from the
average marginal effect shows that only production variable is significant to
increase the probability of the cocoa farmers to ferment their cocoa beans. Result
from the analysis indicates that on average for one kilogram increase in cocoa
production per month, the probability of observing increases fermentation by
approximately 0.26 percentage point. In other words, higher production volume
increases the probability of the cocoa producers to ferment their cocoa beans. It is
suggested to multi stakehonders in cocoa industry to further improve production
through the implementation of good agricultural practices (GAP) and extending
training for cocoa farmers.
Keywords: cocoa benas, fermentation, logit, Jembrana, average marginal effect
INTRODUCTION
Demand for cocoa beans in the world market is increasing in line with growing trend of
chocolate industries. The global cocoa and chocolate market is projected to grow from $48.29
billion in 2022 to $67.88 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 4.98% in forecast period (Fortune
Business Insights, 2022). This implies that cocoa beans are most essential and valuable input
for the chocolate industry. In terms of supply and demand, there must be challenges for the
chocolate industry to maintain the supply standard products with the availability of standard
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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal (ASSRJ) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2024
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
raw material coming from cocoa beans. This phenomenon is a promising opportunity for cocoa
producing countries like Indonesia to fulfill the growing chocolate demand.
Cocoa bean is one of the important export commodities for Indonesian’s foreign earnings.
Indonesia has experienced in cocoa export since the last 20 years, resulting from massive
growth of cocoa plantation, mainly from smallholder farmers. Indonesia is known as the third
largest cocoa producer in the world after Ivory Coast and Ghana. The main cocoa producing
area in Indonesian is the island of Sulawesi accounting for 60 percent of the country’s total
production. Despite of major player in the world market, cocoa production in Indonesia has
been facing a decline figure. Several reasons such as aging trees and lack of maintenance. Data
from Statistics Indonesia exposed that cocoa production in 2018 achieved 767,400 tons and
decreased to 650,612 tons in 2022, a decline of 3.81 percent per year in average (Statistic
Indonesia, 2023). In terms of quality, Indonesian cocoa is known for producing inconsistent
quality resulting in low price competetiveness in the world market. ICCO noted that only 10
percent of cocoa export from Indonesia in categorized as ‘fine’or ‘flavoured’ (FAO, 2024).
The government of Indonesia (GoI) has implemented several policies to boost farmer’s
productivity together with private initiatives, including improved seedling, input subsidies and
access to financial services. The National Movement for Cocoa Fermentation or GERNAS in
2014 started as a key point to gear Indonesian cocoa production. (Glorya and Nugraha, 2019).
Recent commitment was on the program of Transforming the Cocoa Sector in Indonesia
through Value Addition for Smallholders (abbreviated as Tractions’) to support sustainable
cocoa fermentation (Yusuf, 2022). It is expected that farmers will get high price from the
improved quality of cocoa beans.
Bali Province is one of Indonesia provinces has an important role in cocoa production and
export. Cocoa is one main agricultural export commodity of Bali where main development of
cocoa plantation lies in Jembrana Regency. Data from Bali Statistics (2022) showed that Bali
total cocoa production was 13,876 tons and 45 percent of it came from Jembrana regency.
Cocoa production in Jembrana has increased doubled from 2019 to 2021. Cocoa production in
2019 was only 2,942 tons, while a slightly increase in 2020 up to 3,009 tons and achieved 6.341
tons in 2021. These increase productions came from newly rejuvenated harvest in the previous
years. Cocoa production in Jembrana is expected to increase from some more rejuvenated tress,
supported by the Jembrana Regent and Ministry of Agriculture.
Strong commitment to improve quality of cocoa through fermentation has been carried out by
the Jembrana Regent and other stakeholders in Jembrana Regency. This appears in Traction’s
commitment where seven producing cocoa areas in Indonesia decided to commit for
sustainable fermented cocoa (Yusuf, 2022). Like many other cocoa producing areas in
Indonesia, farmers to some extend are reluctant to ferment their cocoa for several reasons
(Arsyad et al., 2013; Soemarno et al., 2015 and Hariyati, 2016). Results study from Soemarno
et al. (2015) in Jembrana Regency exposed that unsuitable fermented cocoa price compared to
unfermented, the number of village collectors to buy unfermented cocoa and insufficient ability
to conduct fermented technology were contributable reasons for not conducting fermentation.
Consistent with previous study, Hariyati (2016) indicated that farmers are unwilling to sell
fermented cocoa because there are buyers purchasing unfermented cocoa. There are chances
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Ambarawati, I. G. A. A., & Esterina, N. P. A. (2024). Cocoa Producers’ Decision on Fermenting Beans in Jembrana Regency, Bali Province, Indonesia.
Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 11(2). 543-549.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.112.16560
for farmers to sell their cocoa with slight effort of sun drying for two to three days and village
collector will buy.
There are numbers of research on reluctance of farmers conducting cocoa fermentation such
as Arsyad et al. (2013), Sumarno et al. (2015), Hariyati (2016) and Rifin (2020). This study will
provide more information on the probability of farmer decision to ferment cocoa beans in
Jembrana Regency, Bali Province, Indonesia.
RESEARCH METHODS
Location of the research was selected purposively in Jembrana Regencyt, as the main cocoa
production in Bali. Further two villages were selected as representatives of areas where
farmers conduct fermentation and not. Cocoa farmers in Ekasari village conduct cocoa
fermentation while unfermented for cocoa farmers at Blimbingsari village. The number of
famer’s respondents in this study was selected based on the numbers of population (cocoa
farmers) in these two villages. By using Slovin criteria with the error of 10 percent, the total
number of respondents were 78 farmers.
This research used a survey method by visiting respondents on the location of the study.
Farmers were selected randomly in both villages and they agreed to be interviewed. Primary
data from farmers were collected by using prepared questionnaires while secondary data were
obtained from official publication such as Statistics Indonesia. Cocoa data observed from
farmers were average production during June 2022 to May 2023.
A logistic regression (logit) model was used in this study to answer the research question on
the probability of farmer’s decision to ferment their cocoa beans. Primary data collected from
farmers include age, farm-size holding, cocoa production, other occupation than cocoa farming,
and length of experience cocoa farming.
The model was developed using three explanatory variables, namely farm size, production and
other occupation of farmers apart from cocoa farming to the one response variable P
(Fermentation =1). The model is shown below:
P(Fermentation = 1) =
e
(β0+β1Farm Size+β2Production+β3Other Occ)
1 + e
(β0+β1Farm Size+β2Production+β3Other Occ)
where:
• P (Fermentation = 1 and 0 for not fermenting cocoa)
• β0 = constant
• β1, ..., β3 = regression coefficients
• Fram Size = Farm size of cocoa farmers (ha)
• Production= average cocoa beans harvested (kg/month)
• Other Occ = other occupation of farmer (y =1)
Other primary data collected not included in the logit model were used to support results of the
study such as age, education, length of cocoa farming experience.