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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal – Vol. 10, No. 7

Publication Date: July 25, 2023

DOI:10.14738/assrj.107.15069

Shehata, G. A. B., Srour, A. H. I., Oraby, S. A. M. S., El-Wakeel, S. E.-S. E.-S., & Zahran, H. A.-E. (2023). Some Economic Aspects of

Sugar as a Strategic Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

Some Economic Aspects of Sugar as a Strategic Commodity in

Egypt

Gaber Ahmed Bassyouni Shehat

Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture

(Saba Basha), Alexandria University, Egypt

Ahmed Hassan Ismaiel Srour

Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture

(Saba Basha), Alexandria University, Egypt

Shmoaa Awad Mohamed Soliman Oraby

Dept. of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Environment

Agricultural Sciences, Arish University, Egypt

Sahar El-Sayed El-Sayed El-Wakeel

Agricultural Economics Institute, Agricultural Research Centre, Egypt

Hanan Abd_Elmoneim Zahran

Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture

(Saba Basha), Alexandria University, Egypt

ABSTRACT

The research aims mainly to study Egyptian food security of sugar through studying

of several sub-objectives represented in: estimating some economic indicators of

sugar in Egypt during the period (2008- 2020), studying of the most important

indicators of food security of sugar, estimating the size of the food gap of sugar and

knowledge of the most important factors responsible for, and studying the policies

and means to achieve food security of sugar in Egypt. Descriptive and quantitative

analysis were used. The study depends on secondary data, which collected from

local and foreign sources during the period (2008- 2020). The conduct study shows

that the most important variables specific to the food gap of sugar are all from the

local production of sugar and domestic consumption of sugar where it was found

that the impact of each of these two variables on sugar gap be negative. The study

showed that the strategic stock of sugar is estimated at 1.15 million tons and the

average national consumption of sugar is estimated at 2.17 million tons during the

study period (2008-2020) with an annual average during that period , therefore,

coefficient of sugar food security estimated at about 0.37, therefore it requires to

take various actions that would lead to increase the size of the sugar strategic stock

to enough half of it needs for domestic consumption even come close to the value of

coefficient of food security, from suitable coefficient of sugar food security. The

study showed that the policies and means to achieve sugar food security include

horizontal agricultural development policy, vertical agricultural development

policy, the policy of rationalizing the consumption of sugar, policy of consumer

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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal (ASSRJ) Vol. 10, Issue 7, July-2023

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subsidy of sugar, and the policy of diversifying sources of imported sugar. In the

light of the results of the study illustrated by research it has been possible to reach

some of the following recommendations: 1- It is necessary to intensify efforts to

agricultural extension and agricultural research centers in collaboration with

factories engineers and agriculture departments and supervisors agricultural

awareness of the importance of agriculture resistance to pests and diseases that

affect the crop, and help them get on pesticides is harmful to the environment to do

so. 2- Increasing of sugar production through the expansion of sugar crops,

particularly sugar beet to the lack of water needs compared to sugar cane harvest

in the new land. 3- Increasing of sugar productivity crops through dissemination of

sugar varieties of high productivity and to suit every center of administrative

centers in Egypt. 4- Rationalizing the consumption of sugar during dismiss the size

of the loss of sugar. 5- to achieve food security has to be the need to develop

awareness programs for the application of planning policy breeds where it is one of

the most important determinants of the demand for i Egyptian imports of sugar. 6-

it is important to put a national strategy to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of

sugar with the need to import and distribute the amounts of diversification between

different sources in order to avoid what might happen from political pressure in

favor of the Egyptian economy is in the case of international political conditions

change. 7- It is necessary to study the reduction commitments of support granted to

the production and export in the sugar-exporting countries in order to reduce the

negative effects on the Egyptian Saving.

Keywords: Food gap, Food security, Sugar, Egypt

INTRODUCTION

The food problem is considered one of the main problems facing the majority of developing

countries, including Egypt, and the food gap still absorbs the largest part of the income of the

majority of these countries, which results in obstructing their development plans. Food security

is also considered one of the most important issues of national security, as it is an issue with

multiple aspects, closely related to a number of different sectors and institutions in the country,

but it is mainly related to the agricultural sector, and then makes agricultural development

more food production, especially in light of the limited resources Natural, continued population

increase, and then increased demand for food.

Egypt suffers from a low food security situation and an inability to achieve self-sufficiency,

especially from the most important strategic crops, while agricultural development does not

give sufficient attention to increasing the domestic supply of foodstuffs, and relying on imports

to provide many of these strategic commodities such as wheat, sugar, edible oils, and meat of

all kinds.

Sugar considers from one of most important food commodities and basic strategy that follows

wheat in consumer important in Egypt as it is one of the commodities relatively cheap source

of energy, which impair the attention of Egyptian agricultural policy-makers, has become the

food security of major food crops in general and sugar in particular target nationally for its

association with aspects of political, economic and social development, especially in light of

globalization. Reflected the importance of sugar as a strategy commodity on the movement of

international trade and the threat of particular importance to the balance of payments in

developing countries, and the production of sugar in the world depends on two main crops,

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Shehata, G. A. B., Srour, A. H. I., Oraby, S. A. M. S., El-Wakeel, S. E.-S. E.-S., & Zahran, H. A.-E. (2023). Some Economic Aspects of Sugar as a Strategic

Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

sugar cane and sugar beets, according to figures during the period of study (2008- 2020) the

average of amount sugar production in Egypt is about 2.36 million tons, sugar cane crop

contributes about 1.21 million tons, representing approximately 51.07% of the total sugar

production, while sugar beet crop contributes about 1.15 million tons, representing

approximately 48.93% of the total production, while the total consumption of sugar is about

3.3 million tons , and up the food gap of sugar is about 1.07 million tons, the self-sufficiency rate

of about 67.58% and the average per capita consumption of sugar is about 31.7 kg per year

(www.capmas.gov.eg.).

The research problem is that despite the increase achieved in the production of sugar crops in

Egypt from the development and modernization of farming methods, however there are still a

gap between sugar production and consumption was estimated at 1233 thousand tons during

the previous period, and the amount of sugar imported about 1193 thousand tons with value of

about $ 2482 million during the previous period (Ministry of Agriculture and land reclamation,

sugar Crops Council, the annual report of crops sugary and sugar production in Egypt, reports

(2008-2020).Due to limited farmland and water resources in Egypt at a time of increasing

aggregate demand on sugar as a result of the increase in population and increasing level of

income which would entail an increase of the food gap of sugar, which is the inability of the

domestic production of sugar to meet the needs of local consumer of it, and are covered by this

sugar gap through sugar imports, which negatively affects the Egyptian agricultural trade

balance which has been suffering from a negative imbalance since the seventies of the last

century and then Egyptian balance of payments . The main objective of this research is studying

some economic aspects of sugar as a strategic crop in Egypt, these objectives can achieve by

achieving the following objectives :

1- Studying of some economic indicators of sugar in Egypt during the period (2008-2020) .

2- Estimating the size of the food gap of sugar and knowledge of the most important factors

responsible on it .

3- Studying of the most important indicators of food security for sugar in Egypt .

4- Studying of policies and means to achieve food security of sugar in Egypt.

The research based on each of the statistic descriptive and quantitative analysis represented in

the estimation of some model’s directivity of economic variables in question in its linear models,

as well as the method was used multiple regression analysis to determine the most important

factors responsible for the size of the sugar gap, the use of certain economic indicators to

measure the impact of factors affecting the coefficient of food security of sugar in Egypt. The

research depends on secondary data published in different bulletin of agricultural economy

issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and land reclamation, and the annual reports of the

various sugar production for the Sugar Crops Council, and the Central Agency for Public

Mobilization and Statistics, as well as bulletins of the United Nations Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO) and ITC calculations based on UN COMTRADE statistics were used, also

some research and scientific communications and some foreign references associated with the

subject of the search, as well as the use of the Internet to get the international information

related to the search.

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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal (ASSRJ) Vol. 10, Issue 7, July-2023

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RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

First- The Statistical Analysis of Some Economic Indicators of Sugar in Egypt During the

Period (2008-2020)

A study of some economic indicators like the total domestic production of sugar, domestic

consumption, and the average per capita consumption, the amount of sugar imports, food gap

of sugar, the price of Egyptian imports of sugar and periods of coverage of domestic production

and the quantity of imports for consumption daily from sugar can explain as follow: -

Sugar Production:

Sugar production in Egypt includes both sugar cane and sugar beet, and sugar production

fluctuated from a minimum of approximately 1851 thousand tons in 2008 and a maximum of

around 2712 thousand tons in 2019 with an annual average of about 2334 thousand. tons

during the study period (2008-2020).

Domestic Consumption of Sugar:

Sugar consumption fluctuated from a minimum of approximately 2992 thousand tons in 2009

and a maximum of around 3548 thousand tons in 2020 with an annual average of about 3215

thousand. tons during the study period (2008-2020). If coupled with the passage of time to

grow steady in the population, this will lead to a steady increase in the consumption needs of

sugar in various forms

Per capita Consumption of Sugar:

Per capita consumption of sugar in Egypt ranged between a minimum of approximately 32.5 kg

per capita in 2017 and a maximum of around 41.2 kg per capita in 2008 with an annual average

rate of about 35.9 kg per capita during the study period (2008-2020).

Egyptian Sugar Imports:

The problem of increasing Egyptian sugar imports considers from the fundamental problems

facing the Egyptian economy because of its negative effects on Egyptian agricultural trade

balance and then Egyptian balance of payments, especially in light of increased prices of imports

of sugar in the world market, it which requires expansion in the cultivation of sugar crops in

Egypt, but that the policy of horizontal development facing several difficulties, most notably the

great competition between the area of sugar crops and the rest of other agricultural crops on

the farmland, and sugar cane crops needs more water resources per feddan1 reached about

(13,000 - 15,000) m3 of irrigation water. The Egyptian sugar imports have an important role to

cover the gap between domestic production and the consumer needs of sugar. Table (1) shows

that the sugar imports ranged from a minimum of approximately 776 thousand tons in 2013 to

a maximum of approximately 1075 thousand tons in 2010 with an annual average of about 981

thousand tons during the study period.

Egyptian Price Imports of Sugar:

Egyptian price imports of sugar is particularly important as the increasing negative impact on

Egyptian agricultural trade balance and then Egyptian balance of payments, and review the data

in table (II) shows that the Egyptian price imports of sugar ranged between a low of about $

298 per ton in 2008 and a maximum of around $ 1230 per ton in 2020 with an average annual

Feddann = 0.42 hectar

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Shehata, G. A. B., Srour, A. H. I., Oraby, S. A. M. S., El-Wakeel, S. E.-S. E.-S., & Zahran, H. A.-E. (2023). Some Economic Aspects of Sugar as a Strategic

Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

rate of about $ 840.3 per ton, and the Egyptian price imports of sugar took a general trend

morally statistically significant at 1% and total amount of the annual increase of about $ 73.5

per ton.

The Sugar Food Gap in Egypt:

With respect to sugar gap, the beginning of the sugar gap in Egypt began with the beginning of

the open-door policy in 1974 and the subsequent increase in income level classes of Egyptian

people and this policy characterized as a consumer policy. The sugar food gap in the inability of

the domestic production of sugar to cover the consumer needs it, for that gap, it is considered

from the most important problems faced by Egyptian planners and policy economic makers

because sugar is one of the strategic commodities in the world market, especially after the

direction to be used in the production of biofuels, and for this it must identify how the possibility

of achieving self-sufficiency ratio of sugar to study the size of sugar gap and the factors

influencing them to determine the extent of the possibility of reducing the sugar gap in the

future period. Table (II) shows that the Egyptian sugar food gap ranged between a minimum of

approximately 526 thousand tons in 2016 to a maximum of approximately 1234 thousand tons

in 2008 with an annual average rate of about 857 thousand tons.

The Sugar Self-Sufficiency in Egypt:

It is clear from data of table (II) that the rate of self-sufficiency of sugar at the level of Egypt

during the average period (2008-2020) amounted to about 73% with a minimum of about 60%

in 2008 and with a maximum the highest amounted to about 82.48% in 2016. By estimating the

general time trend of the development of the rate of self-sufficiency of sugar in Egypt during the

previous period, it was found that the rate of self-sufficiency increased annually with about

3.1%, it represents about 4.25% of the average, and this increase is statistically significant at

5% level of significance during the study period.

Table (I): Evolution of imports, coverage periods of local production and imports daily

consumption of sugar in Egypt during the period (2008 – 2020)

Year

Productio

n (103

tons)

Import

(103

tons)

Consumpti

(103

tons)

Coverage period / day Total period

(2+3)

Capita

consumption

Daily local

consumptio

n (1)

Local

production

for

consumption

(2)

Imports for

consumptio

n (3)

2008 1851 1062 3285 9000 205.7 118 323.7 41.2

2009 1889 1020 2992 8197.3 230.5 124.4 354.9 36.8

2010 2269 1075 3033 8309.6 273.1 129.3 402.4 36.6

2011 2177 1044 3164 8668.5 251.2 120.4 383.2 37.4

2012 2271 1029 3178 8706.8 260.9 118.1 371.6 36.7

2013 2278 776 3268 8953.4 254.4 86.6 341 36.9

2014 2284 869 3315 9082.2 251.5 95.6 347.1 36.7

2015 2666 937 3281 8989.1 296.6 104.2 400.8 35.5

2016 2476 985 3002 8224.7 301.1 119.7 420.8 33.2

2017 2517 1011 3135 8589 293.1 117.7 410.8 32.5

2018 2417 1020 3272 8964.4 269.9 113.7 383.6 33.2

2019 2712 967 3516 9632.8 281.6 100.4 382 35

2020 2540 956 3548 9720.5 261.3 98.4 359.7 34.7

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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal (ASSRJ) Vol. 10, Issue 7, July-2023

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Annual

averag

2334 981 3215 8849.1 266.5 111.3 375.51 35.9

Min.

limt

1851 776 2992 8197.30 205.7 86.6 323.7 32.5

Maxi.

limt

2712 1075 3548 9720.50 301.1 129.3 420.8 41.2

Amou

nt of

change

58.57** Non

sig.

25.98* 71.17* 4.53** Non sig. Non sig. -0.47**

Rate of

change

2.6** Non

sig.

0.8* 0.8* 1.8** Non sig. Non sig. -1.3**

(1) Daily domestic consumption = domestic consumption / number of days per year.

(2) The period of coverage of local production to daily consumption = domestic production / daily domestic

consumption.

(3) The import coverage daily consumption = quantity of imports / domestic consumption daily.

**: Significant at 0.01 level *: Significant at 0.05 level

Source: Compiled and calculated from

(1) The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics www.capmas.gov.eg.

(2) Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Economic Affairs Sector, central administration agricultural

economy, food balance Egypt, different volumes.

(3) www.faostat.org

Second- Determinants of Egyptian Sugar Food Gap

The sugar food gap determines by production and domestic consumption which covers much

of the imports par with it, and assumed that the change in production will Aikunlh negative

impact reverse direction on the amount of imports from the country, while the effect of the

change in consumption will have a positive effect in the same direction, as can be theoretically,

the variable of Egyptian price imports of sugar as one of the determinants of that gap and is

supposed to be a negative impact on that gap.

Standard Estimation for The Most Important Variables Specific to The Sugar Food Gap:

To study and measure the impact of some of the variables specific to the sugar food gap was

estimated relationship between the amount of the gap of sugar (thousand tons) as the

dependent variable, and all of the domestic production of sugar (X1) (thousand tons), and

consumption (X2) (103 tons), the average real price of Egyptian imports of sugar (X3) ($ / ton),

the annual average per capita consumption of sugar (X4) (kg) , during the study period (2008-

2020) and found that the best mathematical model reflects that relationship is the following

equation:

Y = 89.41 – 0.839 X1 + 0.85 X2

(-15.88) ** {10.34) **

F = 131.04 R2 = 0.96

It is clear from the above equation that the impact of each of X1 and X2 on sugar gap be negative

as the change in the amount of domestic production of sugar by 1% will lead to a change rate of

8.3% in the amount of that gap in the opposite direction, and the change in the average

consumption of sugar by 1% leads to a change by 8.5% in the amount of that gap in the opposite

direction.

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Shehata, G. A. B., Srour, A. H. I., Oraby, S. A. M. S., El-Wakeel, S. E.-S. E.-S., & Zahran, H. A.-E. (2023). Some Economic Aspects of Sugar as a Strategic

Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

Table (II): Development of production, consumption, sugar gap and Egyptian price

import during the period (2008 – 2019)

Self- sufficiency %

Price imports

($/ton)

Gap (103

tons)

Consumption (103

tons)

Production (103

tons)

Year

2008 1851 3285 1234 298 60

2009 1889 2992 1103 385 36.14

2010 2269 3033 764 503 74.81

2011 2177 3164 987 701 68.81

2012 2271 3178 907 768 72.46

2013 2278 3268 990 823 69.71

2014 2584 3315 731 882 77.95

2015 2666 3281 615 1024 81.26

2016 2476 3002 526 1058 82.48

2017 2517 3135 618 1069 80.29

2018 2417 3272 855 1078 73.87

2019 2712 3516 804 1105 77.13

2020 2540 3548 1008 1230 71.59

Annual 2358 3215 857 840.3 73

average

Min. limt 1851 2992 526 298 60

Maxi. limt 2712 3548 1234 1230 82.48

Amount of 58.57** 25.98* -0.47** 73.5** 1.85**

change

Rate of 2.6** 0.8* -1.3** 10.4** 3.1*

change %

Source: Compiled and calculated from:

(1) Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics www.capmas.gov.eg

(2) Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Economic Affairs Sector, central administration agricultural

economy, food balance Egypt, different volumes.

(3) ITC calculations based on UN COMTRADE statistics.

Third- Egyptian Food Security of Sugar

Growing interest in the topic of food security in most parts of the world is necessary which

suffers from a gap between production and consumption of major food commodities that may

be caused by variables such as the continued increase in the number of population and

increasing individual income levels, and the inability of the agricultural resources in those

countries on the production enough of those commodities to meet these numbers of the

population, in addition to the increase in food prices in the world markets, leading to higher

prices in local markets have imported.

It should be noted that the concentration of agricultural production surplus, food has a limited

number of developed countries in North America, Europe, and the direction of those countries

to be regarded as surplus food a strategic nuclear weapons to impose political trends for these

countries to other importing countries it makes the problem of providing food a major factor in

achieving the national security of those importing the largest countries amount of food, which

means that provides the ability to buy food from the world surplus does not necessarily mean

access it easily, and therefore, food security has become a key component of national security .

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The interest of food security issues was increased after the application and implementation of

the WTO agreements, especially the Agreement on Agriculture and the related cancellation

subsidy producers and consumers of food, as well as the elimination of export subsidies of food

and convert all quantitative restrictions in trade restrictions which has led to an increase the

value of imports for a large number of food commodities .

This section deals with an overview of the most important indicators of sugar food security in

Egypt. This is done through the review and analysis of the period of coverage of all domestic

production of Egyptian and Egyptian imports annually for national consumption of sugar, as

well as to estimate the coefficient of food security for the period covered by statistical analysis

research (2008-2020), and then a review of some aspects of the policies and the means to

achieve the Egyptian food security of sugar as a top priority for its association with the lives of

all Egyptians people, because the most important one of the main sources for cheap energy .

Concepts of Food Security:

There are many concepts of food security as a result of the divergence of the view of its authors,

and although the term food security is newly used, it receives the greatest interest from

international organizations, experts and researchers. The following are the most important

definitions of food security:

Definition of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO):

Food security is available when all people at all times have physical, social and economic

opportunities to obtain sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their nutritional needs

and tastes and ensures that they lead a healthy and active life.

It is noticeable in this definition that it moved away from the traditional concept of food

security, which is the ability of the country to secure the foodstuffs necessary to feed the

population and meet the basic necessary needs for human growth and survival in good health,

and that there must be a stock of food that can be used in the event of natural disasters that

reduce production Foodstuffs or in the event that the country is unable to obtain foodstuffs by

import from abroad, where the definition is associated with the term self-sufficiency, that is,

reliance on local resources to secure the basic needs of food for the population.

Definition of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD):

Food security means providing food in the quantities and qualities necessary for activity and

health on an ongoing basis, and for every member of the population, depending on local

production first and on the basis of the comparative advantage of producing food commodities

for each country and making it available to all members of the population at prices that are

commensurate with their income and financial capabilities. In addition to this definition, the

organization focuses in its strategy on achieving sufficient food stocks in exceptional cases such

as difficult natural conditions and political and military tension. Strategic stocks mean the

ability of the state to provide basic food needs for all members of society, and ensure a minimum

level in those needs on a regular basis, which means the volume of consumption necessary to

maintain human life.

However, the condition of comparative advantage adopted by the organization in its definition

cannot be generalized in practice, because some countries do not have a comparative advantage

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Shehata, G. A. B., Srour, A. H. I., Oraby, S. A. M. S., El-Wakeel, S. E.-S. E.-S., & Zahran, H. A.-E. (2023). Some Economic Aspects of Sugar as a Strategic

Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

in the production of some commodities, but they have produced and developed them through

following an agricultural policy that depends on increasing support to farmers, in addition to

using advanced technology and following a protectionist policy. For its agricultural

commodities, and among these countries is Japan, which does not have a comparative

advantage in the production of rice, but it produced it in order to preserve its political security

for the Japanese citizen.

Definition of the World Bank:

The World Bank defined food security as the possibility of all people at all times having access

to sufficient food necessary for their activity and health, and food security for a country is

achieved when this country, with its marketing and commercial system, is able to supply all

citizens with sufficient food at all times and even in times of crisis such as times of Low domestic

production and disruption of international market conditions (). The definition of the World

Bank is based on four foundations:

1- The physical basis: which is related to individuals obtaining an amount of food sufficient

to carry out their activities in daily life and in a way that preserves their health.

2- The comprehensive basis: which is related to applying the previous basis to all citizens

in society, regardless of their financial or purchasing capabilities.

3- The temporal basis: which is related to the access of individuals to food at all times,

especially in times of crises, which include a decrease in domestic production or

disruption of the conditions of international markets in the trade of food commodities

4- The source of obtaining food: In this regard, the definition did not stipulate a local or

international source for obtaining food, but rather stipulated the ability of the local

marketing system and the foreign trade system to provide food for all regions, including

remote ones.

Food security has also been defined as the easy and regular access of every person to safe and

sufficient food that allows him to enjoy an active life.

From the previous definitions, it is clear to us the importance of the time element in relation to

food security, i.e. the necessity of providing food at all times, as well as the quantity and quality

of food that is required to be achieved, and therefore to achieve food security, healthy food must

be provided continuously, in addition to the necessity of matching the price of food with the

capabilities available to the population, as It can be said that the concept of food security should

be based on three pillars:

• Availability of food commodities in good quantity and quality.

• The presence of food commodities in the market permanently.

• That the prices of commodities be within the reach of citizens.

The concept of food security and how to achieve it has captured the interests of all developing

countries, as the exacerbation of the food problem has led to an increase in the burden on the

balances of those countries, forcing them to allocate a significant part of their hard currency

assets to importing food commodities. Two levels of food security can be distinguished:

1- Absolute food security: This means food production within the country equal to or

greater than domestic demand. This level is synonymous with complete self-sufficiency

and is also known as self-food security.

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2- Relative food security: It means the ability of the state to provide commodities and

foodstuffs in whole or in part and to ensure the minimum of those needs regularly by

importing from abroad, and this is achieved by ensuring the availability of Sufficient food

supply and the stability of this supply without fluctuations.

In order for the food security of the state to be achieved, there must be a stock of foodstuffs that

can be used in the event of natural disasters that reduce food production, or in the event that

the country cannot obtain foodstuffs through imports from abroad. Two cases of food security

can be distinguished:

1. Chronic Food Insecurity: It is a continuous picture of the inability to obtain food, and

the cost of this situation rises at the level of the country that suffers from it, where

diseases and epidemics are exposed, and the roots of the chronic food security problem

are due to the lack of resources to produce or obtain food.

2. Transitory Food Insecurity: It is a state of temporary decline in the ability of the state

to obtain food as a result of the instability of food production and prices, and the extreme

form of this situation is famine.

Factors Affecting the Achievement of Food Security:

There are many factors influencing the achievement of food security, and their importance may

vary from one country to another depending on the specificity of that factor influencing the

achievement of food security. In general, these factors can be divided into two main types:

1. Internal factors: They are those factors related to the country or the national economy

that can achieve its distinction from other countries, and these factors are as follows:

A. Natural factors: They are the factors of climate, land and water, and they constitute

the main pillar of food security. At the level of some countries, the climate is

described as high temperature in most months of the year, and drought prevails in

most lands, where the desert climate prevails over these lands.

B. Human resources: Population growth is one of the most important factors

influencing the issue of food security, as it puts pressure on natural resources, which

is reflected in negative ways that lead to drought, pollution, energy crisis, lack of food,

high prices and famine.

C. Scientific research in the field of agriculture: Scientific research in the field of

agriculture aims to improve agricultural production and choose the best and most

economical methods of production in proportion to the conditions and nature of the

country. Traditional varieties are more tolerant to drought and salinity.

D. Agricultural investment: The agricultural sector suffers in general from weak

investments directed to it compared to other sectors such as the industrial sector,

and of course the weakness in this investment direction will negatively affect the

achievement of food security in such countries.

2. External factors:

A. Transformations in the global system: Major changes took place in the economic

systems in the world during a period extending to two decades. The growth of

agriculture in some countries, with which economic agreements are linked, became

difficult to implement later.

B. Global economic inflation: It has become one of the features of the new era is the

rise in prices and the decline in purchasing power as a result of inflation occurring in

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Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

the economies of different countries of the world, and this has negatively affected

investment opportunities in the agricultural sector and the development of these

investments in an escalating manner, as a result of the concern of investors of the

economic feasibility achieved in light of the acceleration in economic inflation.

C. The growth of economic blocs: The idea of economic blocs has taken on a wide

range at the present time, especially in the field of applying the free trade area, the

European Common Market and other world economic blocs and agreements, which

paved the way for developed countries to directly dominate the economies of

countries less able to develop and keep pace with technology. achieved in the field of

agricultural production, and thus these countries became less able to achieve food

security because they became more hidden than productive.

The concept of food security is linked to the concept of sustainable food security, which will be

clarified as follows:

Definition of Sustainable Food Security:

The term food security appeared in a new formula that keeps pace with the current changes, as

food security became required to be sustainable, by considering the economic, social and

environmental aspects, considering the right of future generations by ensuring a minimum level

of healthy food on a regular basis for the current and future generations

In the field of food, sustainable food security is defined as providing suitable food for current

generations in ways that do not prevent future generations from enjoying a similar or better

amount of food. Reliance on productive and continuous natural resources, as the challenge

facing governments and producers is to increase agricultural productivity, and then ensure food

security while enhancing the productive capacity of resources in a continuous manner.

Therefore, sustainable food security is the provision of safe and healthy food for current

generations without losing the right of future generations to obtain the same level or better

food, which means ensuring the provision of food needs for the ever-increasing population, and

therefore sustainable food security must be considered within a dynamic framework that

reflects the relationship between the population always growing, and their needs for food.

Dimensions and Strategies of Sustainable Food Security:

In view of the importance of sustainable food security, and the pivotal role it plays in achieving

the well-being and stability of different peoples, we find that it has complex dimensions, so it is

necessary to know and define the various strategies to achieve it.

Dimensions of Sustainable Food Security:

According to the different definitions that have been presented about sustainable food security,

we find that its concept includes several dimensions, the most important of which are as

follows:

A. The time dimension: Any country that enjoys food security can cover its needs

continuously, whether in the short or long term, according to the time dimension.

B. Quantitative dimension: It means that the consumer gets the right amount of materials

and nutrients, which covers his needs in the quantitative sense according to the

individual needs of energy and nutrients.

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C. The qualitative dimension: In addition to the quantitative dimension, food security for

consumers is not complete without providing the qualitative dimension as well, i.e. the

consumer’s access to food of a certain quality and quality, and the quality is linked to the

source and diversity of food, whether of plant or animal origins.

D. The economic dimension: Even if the required food is always available in the required

quantities and quality, we cannot say that it provides sustainable food security unless

people are able to access food supported by purchasing power that actually enables

them to obtain food and eat it at all times. Therefore, sufficient income that guarantees

the consumer obtaining the required food is an essential pillar of sustainable food

security.

E. The social and political dimension: This dimension is represented in highlighting the

importance of food as one of the human rights, and therefore achieving sustainable food

security represents the other side of the right to food, and focus must be placed on the

necessity of providing a subsistence level of food for every member of society, so that his

life continues in a healthy and active manner. Whereas the lack of a subsistence level of

food in the community, and the inequity of its distribution among the members of the

community, must contribute to the lack of social stability within the state. It also has an

important role in bringing about political stability, as the occurrence of a food shortage,

especially in essential commodities, may lead to a direct threat to the lives of individuals,

which means a threat to the stability of the internal security of the state, as food has

become one of the economic weapons that are used as a method of political influence.

F. The environmental dimension: The environmental dimension is considered one of the

most important dimensions of sustainable food security. Sustainable food security

requires the production of food in sufficient and nutritious quantity and good quality,

and the possibility of obtaining it at all times in various capacities, while preserving the

resources on which it depends and reducing its environmental impacts, through

Preparing good programs to preserve the environment and prevent its destruction

through inappropriate agricultural policies.

It is known that many countries use chemicals to improve and increase production, but despite

their effectiveness, they have significant side effects on the environment, so the use of natural

methods must be encouraged, by making radical changes in public policies that encourage the

use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers and the use of Instead of natural methods, there must

be legislation and research that proposes a strategy aimed at reducing the use of chemicals.

Determinants of Sustainable Food Security:

The sustainable food security must have major determinants, and these determinants are as

follows:

• Providing food regularly and ensuring access to it at all times, by providing the

infrastructure to ensure that it reaches all regions, in addition to price stability and

providing appropriate income to obtain it at all times.

• The food should be of good quality, that is, healthy and meet the nutritional needs of

individuals, and the environmental aspect must be taken into account through the

rational use of the available resources when producing it, and the use of advanced

technology to reduce its effects on the environment, and the inclusion of environmental

awareness in the educational system.

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Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

• All members of society must be given the opportunity to obtain food of good quality, and

food must be culturally appropriate, i.e., compatible with the customs and traditions of

society.

Sustainable food security is achieved by continuing to increase productivity, expanding the

cultivated area, continuous searching for and maintaining import sources, increasing the

quantities imported from them, and continuing to raise the efficiency of resource production.

All these factors combined lead to providing food for the population while providing part of it

to raise the strategic stock of commodities. The main reason for the continued flow of food to

catch up with the growing demand of the population, which also leads to an increase in the food

security coefficient of these commodities.

The Most Important Indicators of Egyptian Food Security of Sugar:

This part of the study deals the most important indicators of food security for sugar in Egypt

during the study period (2008-2020) to calculate the coefficient of food security for sugar

commodity, which is represented in each of the Egyptian production of sugar, which is about

2.54 million tons in 2020, domestic consumption of approximately 3.55 million tons in 2020,

and leads to the fact that the average per capita consumption of sugar approximately 34.7 kg a

year, and the consequences of that the sugar gap is nearly 1.01 million tons in 2020.

The length of the period of cover production and decrease the period of coverage of imports for

the national consumption which consider good step indicate the direction to achieve food

security somewhat, and that indicates a reduced reliance on imports from abroad .

1. Egyptian daily consumption of sugar: Table (I) showed the Egyptian daily

consumption of sugar during the period (2008-2020) that ranges from a minimum of

about 8197.3 thousand tons in 2009 and a maximum of about 9720.5 thousand tons in

2020 with an annual average rate of nearly 8849.1 thousand tons during the study

period and the Egyptian daily consumption of sugar took a general trend upward

statistically significant at the 5% which estimated at 71.17 tons, representing about

0.80% of the annual average of the Egyptian daily consumption of sugar.

2. The period of cover Egyptian production to daily consumption of sugar: This period

knows as a period which can be covered by the Egyptian production of sugar for the

needs of daily food for the population, and can be seen reviewing a period during the

years (2008-20) it ranges from a minimum of about 205.7 days in 2008 and a maximum

of about 301.1 days in 2016 with an annual average rate of about 266.5 days table (I).

The decrease of the period of cover Egyptian production to daily consumption of sugar

is due to increase the rate of annual growth in national consumption of sugar during the

study period.

3. The period of cover of Egyptian imports for daily consumption of sugar: This period

knows as the period which can cover the annual import of sugar to daily nutritional

needs of the population, which can be seen during the review period (2008-2020), they

range from a minimum of about 86.6 days in 2013 and a maximum of about 129.3 days

in 2010 with an annual average rate of approximately 111.3 days during the study

period -Table (I).

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Fourth - Determination of Egyptian Strategic Stock from Sugar

The strategic stock for a commodity knows that the quantities held by the government and the

private sector to meet the expected demand for domestic and export on this item during a future

period of time. The management and organization of the strategic stock is affected by a number

of factors, the most important of which are the two periods of adequacy of production and

coverage of imports for local consumption, and the temporal and spatial consumption

differences and the conditions of the world market for the commodity.

It is estimated that the strategic stock during a certain time period that the outcome of the entire

surplus directed to the development of the strategic stock in some years and the amount of the

deficit, which is withdrawn from inventory during the other years, which shows the deficit in

domestic consumption. That is maintaining a strategic stock of sugar of the most important

considerations of Egyptian national food security. Strategic stock is configured through

domestic production or through imports or both. It turns review the amount of Egyptian

strategic stock from sugar during the period (2008-2020) that up to approximately 2030.7

thousand tons, and this is sufficient for the consumption of about 229.5 days, or about 7.64

months, which necessitates the need to increase the size of the stock at about 3189.6 thousand

tons of sugar to enough for domestic consumption for 12 months or about 1594.7 thousand

tons of sugar for 6 months conformable to Egyptian national food security considerations -

(Table III).

Surplus and Deficit in the Consumption of Sugar Allocated for The Egyptian National

During the Study Period (2008-2020):

Reviewing a surplus and the deficit in the Egyptian national consumption of sugar allocated

during the study period (2008-2020), through calculated by the following equation (the sum of

two terms insufficient production and imports - 365) * daily consumption) and therefore no

surplus through for the years of 2008, 2009.2013, 2014, 2020. It turns reviewing a surplus in

the sugar allocated for the Egyptian national consumption during the study period that ranges

from a minimum of about 57.5 tons in 2012 and a maximum of about 458.9 thousand tons in

2016, and this surplus directed to the development of the strategic stock in some years, which

shows where the deficit, which is withdrawn from the stock during the other years 2010, 2011,

2012, 2015, 2016.2017, 2018, 2019, and the deficit of sugar allocated for the Egyptian national

consumption of the during the period. The study estimated at 98.6 thousand tons, or about

11.43 days, and this deficit will be covered during the years of deficit either by drawing from

strategic reserves or import sugar from abroad - Table (III).

Coefficient of Food Security for Sugar in Egypt During the Study Period (2008-2020):

The value of coefficient of food security for sugar in Egypt fluctuates between zero and one, and

the closer the value of zero indicates that the decline in the rate of food security and the closer

the value of one, the higher the achievement rate food security for sugar, and calculated

coefficient of food security as the ratio of strategic stock to the national consumption of sugar,

and as the strategic stock of sugar is estimated at 1.15 million tons and the average national

consumption of sugar is estimated at 2.17 million tons during the study period (2008-2020)

with an annual average during that period , therefore, coefficient of sugar food security

estimated at about 0.37, therefore it requires to take various actions that would lead to increase

the size of the sugar strategic stock to enough half of it needs for domestic consumption even

come close to the value of coefficient of food security, from suitable position - (Table III).

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Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

Table (III) - Period of the adequacy of the surplus and the deficit of sugar allocated for

Egyptian daily domestic consumption during the period (2008-2020)

Year Surplus Deficit

Quantity

(103

ton)

Period

adequacy

surplus in daily

domestic

consumption

Quantity

(103

ton)

Period deficit in

sugar allocated

for daily

domestic

consumption

Strategic

stock

103

ton

Coefficient of

food security

2008 - - 371.7 41.3 -371.7 -0.11

2009 - - 82.7 10.1 -82.7 -0.02

2010 310.8 37.4 - - 310.8 0.10

2011 157.8 18.2 - - 157.8 0.05

2012 57.5 6.6 - - 57.5 0.02

2013 - - 214.9 24 -214.9 -0.07

2014 - - 162.6 17.9 -162.6 -0.05

2015 321.8 35.8 - - 321.8 0.10

2016 458.9 55.8 - - 458.9 0.14

2017 393.4 45.8 - - 393.4 0.12

2018 166.7 18.6 - - 166.7 0.05

2019 163.8 17 - - 163.8 0.05

2020 - - 51.5 5.3 -51.5 -0.01

Total 2030.7 235.2 883.4 98.6 1147.3 0.37

Surplus = (sum of two terms insufficient production and imports -365) * daily consumption.

Deficit = (365 - sum of two terms insufficient production and imports) * daily consumption. Source: Collected and

calculated from table (I).

Fifth - Policies and Means to Achieve Sugar Food Security in Egypt

During the past decades, many attempts to achieve an appropriate rate for agricultural

development in Egypt, which included inventory and Reclamation then farming new land and

decide what grants to them from field crops and horticulture, as well as follow the identification

of ways to service the occasion, and the provision of strains of high-yield resistance to climatic

conditions in various regions of Egypt. It was the establishment of irrigation systems of high

efficiency reaches a total length of 40 thousand kilometers, stretching from Lake Nasser in front

of the High Dam to the fields of the valley and delta of the total floor area of about 8.3 million

feddans of the crop of about 15 million feddans, and in spite of all these efforts, it has

exacerbated the problem declined Egyptian food security in general as the inability of GDP to

meet the needs of a growing population year after year, and was a major import foodstuffs

including wheat, beans, oil, sugar, maize, animal feed Levantine quantities exceeded 50% of

total consumption. The following is a review can be the most important means to achieve food

security policies of Egyptian sugar as one of the most important problems of food security in

Egypt is related to the daily consumption of each population. This can be achieved food security

of the Egyptian sugar through the following policies:

Horizontal Agricultural Development Policy:

It includes direction of the new areas for the cultivation of sugar crops by reclaiming arable land

with the provision of water resources additional necessary in order to achieve food security,

especially in the land under the reform like the land-Salam Canal, which has an area of about

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620 thousand feddans, of which 400 thousand feddans in the Sinai, a large part of them fit for

cultivation immediately, as well as the territory of North Coast, which can exploit the rainy

season in the winter, except for the month of April, as well as the land area of about 540

thousand feddans in Toshka, as well as another area in east Owaynat of about 250 thousand

acres, in addition to the approximately 400 feddanss of arable in Aswan as well as about 500

feddans are planted in Egypt annually pulp any that can be added about two million feddans of

the patch can be allocated, including part of the cultivation of sugar crops and thus could

approach the great eye of the sufficiency from Egyptian needs from that strategy commodity

with an annual average consumption of which about 2.17 million tons during the period (1995-

2012).

Vertical Agricultural Development Policy:

This is done by continuing to devise new varieties of early sugar crops in maturity and

resistance to diseases and other pests and resistant to stress environmental characterized by

an increase of the yield per feddan compare with old varieties to be replaced, to be accompanied

by the provision of production inputs at appropriate times, like most of the good seed of

improved varieties developed especially for fertilizers, especially nitrogenous taking into

account the direct agricultural extension of the farmers on how to use it with suitable prices for

these inputs.

It should be noted that it could be reconsidered in the compositions cropping current to

increase the acreage under sugar crops without affecting other crops through the development

of early maturing varieties able to punish the cultivation of another crop after sugar crops, as

well as the establishment of agricultural extension in turn encourage and educate farmers

attention to agriculture, including achieve higher production and motivate them using the

methods of modern technology of irrigation systems and methods of service and care for the

crops to maintain high productivity. The role of agricultural extension in vertical agricultural

development by educating farmers on the use of modern technological methods as well as the

use of deep plowing instead of plowing the traditional because it helps to distribute the water

in a way to help increase the percentage of germination and the style of the traditional irrigation

became big in the amount of water because the sugar cane crop needs a large amount of water

in the cultivation and therefore must be the direction of sprinkler irrigation and thus increases

the amount of output diabetes.

Policy of Rationalizing the Consumption of Sugar:

The Egyptian policy of rationalizing the consumption of sugar and organization, provided that

appropriate of the most important policies that are consistent with international standards of

health, which may result in a decrease in the size of the Egyptian consumer of sugar gap because

the per capita consumption of the most important factors influencing the sugar gap, and

requires directing a great deal of awareness and guidance of government directed the Egyptian

people to raise the level of per capita consumption in order to reduce the average consumption

of sugar and work to address the ignorance of food found in Egyptian society to improve per

capita consumption of sugar.

Policy of Consumer Subsidy of Sugar:

The consumer subsidy of sugar considers from the most important factors that have a positive

impact in the increase in the average per capita consumption of sugar may be due to an increase

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Commodity in Egypt. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 10(7). 185-205.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.107.15069

in the amount of the total demand for subsidized goods to lower their price and cheap source

of energy, something that would increase the consumption of sugar at rates greater than the

increase in the local production of it and thus increase the amount of sugar imports to cover

this sugar gap, which adversely affects the Egyptian balance of trade and then balance of

payments which led to follow the Egyptian government's policy of deficit financing and increase

the amount of the total payment methods which not commensurate with the total increase in

the gross national product which resulted in increased inflation problem as a result of an

increase in aggregate demand at a rate faster than the increase in total supply.

Policy of Diversification of Sugar Imports Sources:

It includes all the arrangements followed by the state which needed to control and regulate

imported annually to achieve the provision of sugar commodity and achieve the national food

security, which have an impact on the overall development and increased investment in the

fields of agricultural, industrial and tourism which lead in turn, to increase the national income

and the strengthening of the national economy and achieve of raise the standard living for all

Egyptian people. The statistics data show that Egypt was self-sufficient of sugar until 1973, but

as a result of environmental conditions unsuitable happened deficit in domestic production of

sugar has been unable to meet the particular needs of consumer and then resort to sugar

imports to solve this deficit which athrip upon the existence of a deficit in Egyptian agricultural

trade balance and then a deficit in the Egyptian balance of payments where bears Egypt most

of the value paid in the import process in foreign currency (American dollar and Euro), in

addition to targeted subsidies annually for sugar to the category of low-income people, which

represents a large proportion of members of the Egyptian people through ration cards, and

getting this problem difficult in light of the trend increasing world sugar prices due to the entry

of sugar in the production of biofuels from sugar crops, which negatively affects staffed offered

sugar that go into the food industry, which leads to the increase in the price of sugar imports

and the consequent of a deficit in the Egyptian balance of payments.

It should be noted that it is expected that a significant increase in the quantity of sugar imports

in the coming years - if it is not the expansion of sugar production in Egypt - and because the

system import of sugar in Egypt is subject to the phenomenon of geographical focus as Egypt

depends on imports of sugar cane and sugar beet on six countries mainly are Brazil, Australia,

Cuba, India, France and Germany and those countries controlled most of the international

market for sugar and thus on prices and routes to export, in addition to the implementation of

the convention and the establishment of the World Trade Organization is expected to result in

a future increase in the prices of most food commodities, including sugar, which requires the

development of a national strategy to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of sugar with the need

to distribute the amounts of import and diversification among various sources in order to avoid

what might happen from political pressure not to be in favor of the Egyptian economy in the

event of changed circumstances the international political; this is because the dependence on

these markets in the provision of sugar consumer needs makes it susceptible to numerous

global risks that occur in the world food markets or those related to potential climate change at

the world level or local. It also requires the need to study the obligations of reduction of

subsidies granted to the production and export in the countries exporting sugar in order to

reduce the negative effects on Egyptian economy, and studying the application of the free policy

to import sugar through studying the prices of exported in different countries, which might be

characterized as heterogeneous as a result of differing results of reduction of subsidies in each

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of them, and to increase sugar production through the expansion of sugar crops, particularly

sugar beet for the lack of its needs of water compared to harvest sugar cane in new lands and

raise the productivity of sugar crops circulating through the varieties of high productivity and

to suit every center of administrative centers in Egypt, and rationalizing the consumption of

sugar through dismiss size wastage of sugar, and to achieve food security has to be awareness

programs need to prepare for the application of planning policy breeds where it is one of the

most important determinants of the demand for Egyptian sugar imports.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Related to the results obtained, the research recommends the following: -

• Supporting the productive capacities of producers to decrease sugar imports and hence

reducing the negative impact of Egyptian agricultural trade balance.

• It is necessary to intensify efforts to agricultural extension and agricultural research

centers in collaboration with factories engineers and agriculture departments and

supervisors’ agricultural awareness of the importance of agriculture resistance to pests

and diseases that affect the crop, and help them get on pesticides is harmful to the

environment to do so.

• Increasing of sugar production through the expansion of sugar crops, particularly sugar

beet to the lack of water needs compared to sugar cane harvest in the new land.

• Increasing of sugar productivity crops through dissemination of sugar varieties of high

productivity and to suit every center of administrative centers in Egypt.

• Rationalizing the consumption of sugar during dismiss the size of the loss of sugar.

• To achieve food security has to be the need to develop awareness programs for the

application of planning policy breeds where it is one of the most important determinants

of the demand for i Egyptian imports of sugar.

• It is important to put a national strategy to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of sugar with

the need to import and distribute the amounts of diversification between different

sources in order to avoid what might happen from political pressure in favor of the

Egyptian economy is in the case of international political conditions change.

• It is necessary to study the reduction commitments of support granted to the production

and export in the sugar-exporting countries in order to reduce the negative effects on the

Egyptian Saving.

CONCLUSIONS

The food problem is considered one of the main problems facing the majority of developing

countries, including Egypt, and the food gap still absorbs the largest part of the income of the

majority of these countries, which results in obstructing their development plans. Food security

is also considered one of the most important issues of national security, as it is an issue with

multiple aspects, closely related to a number of different sectors and institutions in the country,

but it is mainly related to the agricultural sector, and then makes agricultural development

more food production, especially in light of the limited resources Natural, continued population

increase, and then increased demand for food.

Egypt suffers from a low food security situation and an inability to achieve self-sufficiency,

especially from the most important strategic crops, while agricultural development does not

give sufficient attention to increasing the domestic supply of foodstuffs, and relying on imports

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