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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal – Vol. 9, No. 11

Publication Date: November 25, 2022

DOI:10.14738/assrj.911.13422. Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis.

Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A

Macro Level Analysis

Khadija LOUDGHIRI

National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (INSEA)

Avenue Allal El Fassi, Madinat Al Irfane, 10100, Rabat, Morocco

B.P: 6217 Rabat-Instituts

Fatima BAKASS

National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (INSEA)

Avenue Allal El Fassi, Madinat Al Irfane, 10100, Rabat, Morocco

B.P: 6217 Rabat-Instituts

Abdesselam FAZOUANE

National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (INSEA)

Avenue Allal El Fassi, Madinat Al Irfane, 10100, Rabat, Morocco

B.P: 6217 Rabat-Instituts

ABSTRACT

Disparities in child mortality are a reality in Morocco. These disparities coexist with

inequalities in: (i) the availability of primary health care (PHCs); (ii) the

socioeconomic status of the population as reflected by the prevalence of various

forms of poverty; as well as (iii) fertility levels (TFRs) and the status of women in

literacy and employment rates. Despite its limitations, this research provides a

macro-level understanding of the link between infant mortality and a range of

aggregates (political, economic, social and demographic).The metadata collected in

the 2014 census (RGPH-2014) RGPH-2014 was used to construct a provincial proxy

indicator of infant mortality by area of residence.This is considered as a dependent

variable that we have tried to explain by the above-mentioned indicators. This is

considered as a dependent variable that we have tried to explain by the above- mentioned indicators. The latter indicators reflect the socio-economic conditions

prevailing in each of the provinces by area of residence. In addition, they give

information on the availability of basic health services and on the woman's status.

A key finding is that the level of current fertility as measured by the TFR negatively

affects child survival. With a statistically significant regression coefficient of 2.912

(Pvalue =0.000), it can be argued that high fertility increases the risk of infant

mortality. In turn, the prevalence of overall poverty also has a statistically

significant effect on infant survival (β= -0.213 with a pvalue =0.029).

Keywords: infant-mortality, fertility, global poverty, Macro-level, Morocco.

INTRODUCTION

Under-five mortality, which is considered a major indicator of the level of development in

general and the physical well-being of children in particular (Shen & Williamson, 1997; Hanmer

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Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis. Advances in Social

Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

et al., 2003), is a concern for nations around the world. In particular, child mortality, one of its

main components, is a good indicator of the health status of entire populations (Allotey and

Reidpath, 2002) and explains much of the variation in life expectancy between countries

(Rodgers, 2002).

Reducing child mortality has long been part of the international community's goals, primarily

within the MDGs and SDGs (United Nations, 2000; United Nations, 2015). Indeed, developing

countries have made substantial progress toward the fourth Millennium Development Goal,

although it varies widely across nations and geographies. United Nations data support the trend

of decreasing child mortality since the mid-1950s in almost every part of the world (United

Nations, 2019a; 2019b). Thus, the under-5 mortality rate has declined from 213‰ to 40‰ and

the infant mortality rate from 140‰ to 29‰. Some differences persist, however, between the

countries depending on their development level. For example, to cite only infant mortality, the

rate is currently 47‰ in the least developed countries and 32‰ for developing countries

versus a mere 4‰ in the developed world.

However, and despite the spectacular improvements in child survival over the past 30 years,

the burden of child deaths worldwide remains immense (UNICEF, 2020). An average of 14,000

children died before the age of five years each day in 2019, as compared to 34,000 in 1990 and

27,000 in 2000. Of the estimated 5.2 Million under-5 deaths in 2019, 2.8 Million were boys and

2.4 Million were girls. Approximately 6,700 newborns died each day in 2019. Neonatal death

represented a progressively larger share of under-5 deaths over time (In 2019, 47% versus

40% in 1990).

Literature generally classifies factors that influence health outcomes into economic,

technological, medical, environmental and societal categories. According to Mosley and Chen

(1984), there are two approaches to explain the infant mortality variation. The first one

adopted by social science research investigated the association between socioeconomic status

and mortality; the second related to epidemiological studies and was concerned by the

morbidity and the biological processes of diseases in the environment. The authors argued that

a new analytical approach incorporating both social and medical science methodologies was

needed and proposed framework based on five proximate determinants. Socioeconomic

determinants, which can be grouped at individual, households and community levels, must

operate through more the basic proximate determinants that in turn influence the risk of

disease and the outcomes of disease processes as mortality (Annex A).

Since, a variety of statistical modeling strategies, based on this framework, have become

common (Hill, 2003). Analysis of links between background factors and proximate

determinants, between infant mortality and both proximate determinants and background

factors and reduced-form models of net associations of background variables and child

mortality were thus conducted.

Many cross-national studies tried to identify the background explanatory factors of the child

mortality are globally based on five theories (Frey and Field, 2000):

modernization/industrialization, economic dependency/world-systems, economic

disarticulation, development state and gender stratification. The first four theories

fundamentally converge to the idea that an independent and equilibrated development

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economy where the State is an important actor increases human well-being and decreases

infant mortality by improving education, housing, nutrition, health care, sanitation, and various

public services. Gender stratification can be used to argue that societies in which women have

a high level of empowerment will generally register low child mortality rate.

Baird and al.(2011) had shown a large negative association between per capita Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) and infant mortality. They also found that female infant mortality is more

sensitive than male infant mortality to negative economic shocks. Similarly, GDP per capita as

a proxy for income and public health expenditure as a percentage of GDP significantly affect

infant mortality rate according to Wellington (2014). On the other hand, an aggregate study

using data from 16 countries did find a relationship between income inequality and infant

mortality with declined association by age at death until aged 65 years from which it became

reversed (Rodgers, 2002).

Pison (2010) indicates that the socioeconomic development and health gains could explain the

child mortality decline around the world. The Increased agricultural yields and improved

transportation have reduced famines and related deaths in most parts of the world. Advances

in hygiene and the dissemination of education have also played a key role. Even in the poorest

regions, educating women is still associated with better health and reduced child mortality, as

it enables them to take better advantage of the availability of care. Health care provision has

improved, both to treat disease and to prevent it. Vaccinations, the first preventive tool, have

made a significant contribution to reducing infections, the main causes of death in children.

The impact of climate and environmental variables was also tested. Baird and al. (2011) argued

that both extreme heat and extreme rainfall affect the likelihood of infant survival. Similarly,

Geruso and Spears (2018) provided evidence on the effects of extreme heat and humidity on

infant mortality in the developing world.

Also, infant mortality is strongly associated with a number of socioeconomic and demographic

variables. The female participation in the labor force and education significantly affect infant

mortality (Zakir and al., 1999; Pamuk and al., 2011; Wellington, 2014; Ekholuenetale and al.,

2020).

A decrease in the maternal mortality ratio is associated with an increasing probability of under- five child survival (Shen & Williamson, 1997). This result were confirmed by a large

international study conducted by Sartorius and al. (2014) who concluded that the maternal

mortality were the most prominent attributable risk factor, followed by lack of access to

sanitation, water and lower female education.

Particularly, fertility and its components significantly affect infant mortality (Trussel and Pebly,

1984; Zakir and al., 1999; Kapileni, 1992; Rutstein 2000). Recently, using the DHS data about

60 poor countries during the period 1985-2008, Yount and al. (2014) have found that the

decline of Total Fertility Rate(TFR) were associated with improvements in child survival.

Ekholuenetale and al. (2020) have shown that households with large number of children (3&+)

had higher risk of infant mortality, compared to the other. The study of Knodel and al. (1984)

had shown that sib ship size is positively related to infant mortality established an association

between infant mortality and maternal age. Kaplan and al. (2015) had demonstrated that the

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Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis. Advances in Social

Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

mortality risk decreases by 24% with each additional year of age of the mother at birth. Also,

age of first birth has a significant effect on mortality rates, reducing the mortality risk of the

earlier-born infant by a quarter for each additional year that a young women delays

reproduction, contraceptive prevalence appears to be negatively correlated with infant

mortality (Shen and Williamson, 2001).

In a comparative study based on DHS data from 42 countries, Rustein (2000) has established

that the risk of child mortality is inversely proportional to the length of births intervals. Also,

the risk of death in the childhood period is higher when the mother's age is over 35 years and

births intervals are less than 24 months. Knodel et al (1984) confirmed earlier that inter-birth

interval is an important factor in infant mortality. Kaplan and al. (2015) noted that a short

interval between births increases the mortality risk to the subsequent infant about fourfold.

It’s clear that a large number of factors influence the infant mortality improvement but many

however are strongly collinear, which makes analysis a complex process (Garenne and Vimard,

1984). In underdeveloped countries, it’s more difficult to isolate their effects. In addition, health

programs are often most intensive in the least healthy places, which tends to confuse observed

relationships even more (Flegg, 1982).

In our context, national statistics confirm that Morocco had already achieved an under-five

mortality rate below the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 25 or fewer deaths per

1000 live births (22.2 per 1000). In general, the mortality in Morocco has fallen considerably

as reflected in lower crude mortality rates and increased life birth expectancy. The life birth

expectancy has risen from under 50 years in the 1960s to over 75 years in recent years. The

infant mortality risk has fallen by 90% during the last six decades from 149 per thousand in

1962 Multiple Purposes Surveys (EOM) to 18 per thousand according to the National

Population and Family Health Survey (ENPSF-2018).

In Morocco, efforts have been made to reduce child mortality through child health strategies

and programs. A sharp decline has been recorded since 1950 as the rate has dropped from

151‰ to 20‰ today (ENPSF-2018). In addition, the most striking disparities are observed

between areas of residence (14.9‰ against 21.5‰ respectively in towns and in rural areas).

Similarly, disparities are noted according to the level of household wealth (10.9‰ for the

affluent level. against 16.9‰ for middle-income households and 23.5‰ for the poor).

However, there are no notable differences between boys and girls (18.3‰ versus 17.7‰

respectively). However, and compared to developed countries, infant mortality today is 5 times

higher, indicating that a significant portion of recorded infant deaths are still preventable.

However, despite the considerable and sustained efforts undertaken by Morocco to reduce

infant morbidity and mortality, the neonatal mortality rate in Morocco is 14 times higher than

in Sweden and in Japan as countries with the least risk of mortality. Therefore, it’s possible to

reduce more this component of mortality. Moreover, it should be noted that the differences in

neonatal chance of survival are widening more between countries during the last decades. In

fact, neonatal mortality, which was 12 times higher in Morocco than in Sweden or Japan in 1990,

rose to 14 times in 2019 (UNICEF, 2020).

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Besides this inter-country disparity, there are also intra-country variations. However, while the

first ones can be assigned to the existence of development gaps between the countries, the

internal variability, despite sharing some explanatory factors with the former, can never be

justified or admitted.

The case of Morocco is not exceptional to the extent that inequality in the number of children

who die is observed by place of residence, by region, and by province . This inequality can be

attributed to several factors, as outlined in Mosley's conceptual framework. According to

Mosley and Chen (1984), the variation in infant mortality can be explained according to two

approaches. The first, embraced by social science research, focuses on the relationship between

socio-economic background and death, while the second approach, which is epidemiological in

nature, concentrates on the biological process of disease and morbidity. These authors, aware

of the need for a mixed approach, proposed a framework based on five proximate determinants:

(i) maternal factors (age, parity, birth spacing), (ii) environmental contamination; (iii) nutrient

deficiency; (iv) injuries (accidental, intentional) (v) and finally personal control of disease. This

approach considers that socioeconomic factors, measured at different levels, affect the health

and the survival of the children through the intermediate determinants.

The important downtrend of infant mortality was accompanied by a significant decline of

fertility. The TFR has decreased from 7 children in 1960s per a woman to 2.2 currently and

there is a total convergence both in urban and rural areas and all social strata. This paper

attempts to verify at the macro level [2] the impact that fertility can have on the infant mortality

level. Additional indicators were selected to control for confounding effects on fertility and

child mortality (poverty, basic health care coverage, and women's social status).

DATA AND METHODS

To verify the eventual links between fertility and infant mortality, we have adopted a macro- level analysis and the province/prefecture was the statistical unit of analysis.

Data sources

Various data sources were consulted in order to generate macro indicators at the provincial

level. Primarily, data from the RGPH-2014 made available by the High Commission for Planning

was used to produce a Macro Indicator that measures the probability of dying in the first

months of life. These meta-data provide information on a random sample of 10% of all

individuals enumerated in the RGPH-2014. This random sample, which is composed of

3,341,426 individuals, is nationally, regionally and provincially representative. It makes it

possible to create indicators considering the main demographic and socio-economic

characteristics (gender, place of residence, age groups, type of housing, etc.). The database also

contains very important information on the survival chances in the infant period that is used to

compute a measurement of the risk of death in the first months of life. This information

concerns: (i) the number of live births delivered during the 12 months prior to the census

reference date; (ii) as well as the number of deaths that occurred among these live deliveries

during the reference period.

Furthermore, and for analysis purposes, multidimensional poverty indicators were also used,

as developed by the HCP using the OPHI approach. This approach has based the measurement

of multidimensional poverty on a wide range of requirements which, if not met, constitute a

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Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis. Advances in Social

Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

factor of poverty prevalence or manifestation, as well as a factor of its social reproduction.

These needs concern access to basic social services, water, electricity and sanitation. These

indicators were generated at the provincial level and by area of residence using data from the

RGPH-2014 (HCP, 2014).

Given the link between the occurrence of health events (morbidity and mortality) and

healthcare supply, the latter component was included in the model analysis. Therefore, the

availability of primary health care derived from a provincial database issued by the Moroccan

Ministry of Health is used to develop an indicator of the availability of primary health care. The

1978 Alma Ata (USSR) International Conference Declaration states that primary health care is

considered essential care (both curative and preventive/promotional) that is based on

scientifically sound methods, techniques, and practices. Primary health care is made universally

available to all individuals and families in the community at a cost that the community and the

country can afford at all stages of development. It constitutes the primary point at which

individuals, families, and the community come into contact with the national health system.

Methods

Dependent variable

This indicator is the ratio of deaths recorded among births in the last 12 months prior to the

2014 census (RGPH-2014) to births in the same period. It is considered to be a proxy for the

probability of death between birth and the first anniversary. Of course, the calculation of this

probability requires perfect knowledge of the total number of deaths (components D1 and D2

(Figure 1) within a particular generation of births (the 2014 generation in this study). However,

only the D1 component is provided by the RGPH-2014, which obviously implies an

underestimation of the risk of infant mortality. Nevertheless, considering the relatively low

level of infant mortality in Morocco, deaths in the first triangle constitute the largest share of

infant deaths [0; 1yr [. Guillaume Wunsch and Antonio Canedo (1978) consider three out of

four deaths to occur in this the first triangle if infant mortality is not more than 100‰. Thus,

taking into account the level of infant mortality in Morocco (18‰ according to ENPSF-2018), a

good auxiliary "proxy" indicator of infant mortality by province is this D1 component

(proxy=D1/N2014). The child mortality quotient (1q0) is obtained by a simple linear

transformation of this indicator (1q0=4*Proxy/3).

Figure 1. Diagram of child mortality components

Source: Developed by us

Admittedly, the selected proxy for mortality, as with any measure of mortality calculated from

retrospective surveys, has several limits. Firstly, the data used concern only the births of

women who were not single and who survived at the moment of the 2014 RGPH. Thus, no

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Figure 2. Trends in neonatal, post-neonatal and infant mortality, Morocco, 1987-2018

Source : Developed by us

Despite this significant decline, the last population and health survey (ENPSF-2018) reveals

that infant mortality differ according to many socio-demographic indicators as the gender of

child, the area of residence, the mother's age at birth of the child,the birth rink, the Wealth- index of the house and the level of mother education (table1). This table shows that the boy are

more exposed to death in the neonatal period than the female. In the post-neonatal period, the

female child mortality is greater than the boy one (the sex ratios are respectively 1.27 and 0,55).

If we considere that the neonatal mortality is more likely a result of endegenous cause and that

the post-neonatal is due to exogenous one, we can suggested that the male births profite of

more interest accorded by their parents if we compare them at the females children.

The same, the infant in the urban area has more chance to survive until his/her first birthday

than the rural one.The mortality ratio is about 0,7 for both neonatal and postneonatal mortality.

In the table 1, we compare also the child mortality according to the mother age at the birth of

his/her child.Hence, except the neonatal mortality, the post-neonatal and the child mortality

are more higher if the age of the mother at the childbirth is too young (less than 24 years old)

or too old (greath than 35 years old).The risk of neonatal mortality is higher in births of the first

order and births of orders over 4. This finding remains true for postneonatal mortality, but only

for births of order 4 and above. As expected, the risk of infant mortality is inversely correlated

with the level of household wealth and with the level of mother education. Even though, the

effect of education is not so strong because of the classification adopted for this indicator

(certificate / no certificate).

At the national level, the improvement in child survival is mainly the result of a decrease in the

post-neonatal mortality (4.4 per thousand according to the ENPS-2018). The resistance to the

decline of the neonatal component [6] (13.6 per thousand according to ENPSF-2018) could be

explained by the prevalence of endogenous causes of death, which are more difficult to

eradicate, and requires, in particular, a high quality care for pregnant women. It’s not the case

of the post-neonatal mortality, which is more affected by preventable exogenous causes.

Undoubtedly, many programs and actions had contributed enormously to the decline in infant

mortality. It concerns: the Pregnancy and Childbirth Surveillance Programs; the strengthening

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Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis. Advances in Social

Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

Figure 3. The global poverty rate and the total fertility rate by province and area of residence,

Morocco, 2014

Source : HCP

RESULTS

Descriptive analysis

It emerges from the descriptive analysis (Table 2) that the TFR varies by province from a

minimum of 1.6 to a maximum of 4.3 children per woman, with little heterogeneity (coefficient

of variation of 16.4%). There also appears to be some relative variability across the provinces

in terms of literacy among women, for which the coefficient of variation is 24.9%. In contrast,

strong provincial disparities emerge with respect to poverty, health care provision and infant

mortality. The provinces are very heterogeneous in terms of the overall poverty rate (85.7%)

and the number of inhabitants per primary health care facility (56.5%). We also note that the

proportion of deaths varies from a minimum of almost 0% to a maximum of 9.7% with a

coefficient of variation of 41.3% and an average proportion of 4.1% (Table 2). According to area

of residence, the variables are classified in the same order, with a few differences, according to

their degree of dispersion. In fact, the provinces in rural areas are more heterogeneous with

respect to the variables relating to women's activity, poverty and health care supply. In

contrast, in urban areas, with the exception of poverty and health care availability, the

provinces seem to be more homogenous with regard to the remaining variables.

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Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis. Advances in Social

Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

global poverty and to the total fertility rate. Furthermore, the child’s mortality is positively and

strongly correlated with the second factorial axis. The first axis can be named “poverty-fertility- woman status” and the second one “child mortality”.

Table 3. Contributions of the various indicators to the development of the 1st Factorial Plan

axis, Morocco, 2014

Source : Developed by us

Figure 4. First factorial design of indicators, Morocco, 2014

Source : Developed by us

The projection of provinces on the first factorial plane suggests that rural area are more

characterized by a high level of mortality, fertility and poverty. The woman status in these

provinces is not so developed. In fact, the woman literacy and activity rates, in the rural area,

are low. In spite of the involvement of the woman in the farm activity and the burden she bears,

her work is unpaid, and she is more often declared as inactive. The urban areas, in the other

hands, are more characterized by a low level of fertility and of global poverty. These areas are

more concentrated in the left of the graphic which is defined by the indicators relating to a

Indicators

Component- 1 (λ1=3,4 ;

explained

variance

=56,8%)

Component- 1 (λ2=1,05 ;

explained

variance

=17,5%)

Global poverty 0,884 0,039

Healthcare_facilities 0,810 -0,189

Total fertility 0,615 0,345

Child mortality -0,056 0,950

Woman_activity -0,849 0,049

Woman_literacy -0,930 0,024

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increase of about 3 points in the risk of mortality, all other things being equal. Except fertility,

the other indicators have a non-significant statistical effect. We have also tested a simple

regression model (infant mortality /total fertility rate) and the result confirms a statistically

significant effect of the total fertility rate on the infant mortality (4.885). Of course, our

objective is not to build a predictive model (R = 42% for multiple regression and 50% simple

regression) but already the variable total fertility rate alone explains half of the variability in

the chances of infant survival.

Table 4.Summary of the results of the multiple regression model

Source : Developed by us

DISCUSSION

In Morocco, there are regional, provincial and residential disparities in infant mortality. Such

disparities co-exist with inequities in: (i) primary health care provision; (ii) socioeconomic

conditions measured here by the presence of various forms of poverty; and (iii) fertility levels

(TFR) and women's status as measured here by their literacy and labor force participation

rates. Admittedly, these indicators have their limits, but they allow one to test at an aggregate

level the relationship between infant mortality and fertility by controlling for some of the

exogenous factors that seem to be influencing the two aspects of demographic change.

These indicators summarize the situation with respect to the main aggregates presented in the

theoretical framework of this thesis. For example, the number of primary health care facilities

per capita is very informative about the supply of health care and its accessibility. It is also a

mirror of the politics of health care supply model. Similarly, it gives an indication of the

commitment of the country to the various international conventions and declarations on

equitable health care and health for all. The availability of preventive and curative healthcare

has been improved, and immunizations, as the primary means of prevention, have contributed

greatly to the reduction of infectious diseases, which are the main cause of death for children.

The poverty rate, for its part, provides information on the success of economic, social and

sustainable development policies in eradicating inequality. A high poverty rate necessarily

means that there are many households in financial difficulties or in situations of deprivation. Of

course, where poverty is high, there is most likely a greater risk of illness and death, particularly

among the most vulnerable populations of whom the children is an integral part.

Explanatories

variables

Regression

coefficient

standard

error

Beta

(β)

t of

Student Pvalue

(Constante) -2,46 2,25 -1,09 0,28

Healthcare facilities 0,00 0,00 0,10 0,79 0,43

Total fertility rate 2,91 0,59 0,50 4,94 0,00

global poverty rate -0,05 0,03 -

0,26 -1,47 0,14

Woman activity

rate 0,04 0,04 0,12 0,84 0,40

Woman literacy

rate 0,01 0,03 0,05 0,27 0,79

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Loudghiri, K., Bakass, F., & Fazouane, A. (2022). Death Inequality During the First Year of Life in Morocco: A Macro Level Analysis. Advances in Social

Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

Also, female literacy and labor force participation rates are indicators that provide information

on the status of women in a province. Conceptual models suggest that socio-demographic

characteristics directly or indirectly influence overall child well-being, of which chances of

survival are a core component. According to the literature, infant mortality is strongly related

to a number of socioeconomic and demographic variables. Women's labor force participation

and education significantly affect infant mortality (Ekholuenetale et al., 2020; Wellington, 2014;

Pamuk et al,. 2011).

Nonetheless, the introduction of all these indicators into a multiple regression model using the

Stepwise procedure showed that only the TFR fertility indicators and the poverty rate were

statistically significant. This finding is due partly to the high degree of correlation between the

indicators not included in the model and the poverty and fertility rates at the macro level. It is

clear that a large number of factors influence child survival, but many are highly collinear,

making the analysis complex (Garenne and Vimard, 1984). In developing countries, it is more

difficult to isolate their effects. In addition, health programs are often more intensive in less

healthy locations, which tends to further confound the observed relationships (Flegg, 1982).

Furthermore, empirically testing the hypothesized relationships between mortality and

fertility is not easy, since they are related to phenomena that occur simultaneously in most

developing countries (industrialization, urbanization, educational progress, etc.). Thus,

although several quantitative studies have found statistical correlations and temporal

associations consistent with these theoretical assumptions, other competing explanations

cannot be ruled out. In other words, a causal relationship that is valid for one population may

not be valid for another (Randall S. and LeGrand T., 2003).

Notwithstanding these limitations, the results found support the conclusions of several

previous studies adopting different methodologies and relating to different contexts. Our key

finding is that after controlling for poverty, education, female employment, and primary health

care provision, fertility levels affect child survival at the provincial level in both urban and rural

areas. In other words, as fertility declines, infant mortality declines significantly.

Many case studies suggest that a mother's education is one of the most important predictors of

infant and child mortality. But even after controlling for these socioeconomic variables, regional

differentials in infant mortality still persist. This leads to believe that there is some significant

sociocultural or other region specific factors that need to be investigated (Kalipeni, 1993).

Declining fertility improves the chances of child survival by many mechanisms. Taucher, (1982)

had written that the mechanism by which the decline in fertility may influence the level of infant

mortality is the modification of the structure of births with respect to at least three variables

related to infant mortality: birth order, the mother's age and the length of the previous birth

interval.

According to Trussel (1984), who have explored the relation between changes in reproductive

behavior and changes in child and maternal mortality, the elimination of fourth and higher

order births would reduce infant and child mortality by about 8 per cent. Increases in the

percentage of births to mothers under age 18 was associated with higher neonatal mortality

and an increase in the percentage of births to women aged 35 years was associated with higher

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neonatal and infant mortality rates. Decreases in the occurrence of short birth intervals ( <24

months) reduced post-neonatal and infant mortality (Rutstein, 2000).

Many studies relate that reductions in fertility contribute to fall in infant mortality by enabling

parents to devote more time and resources to their children (Nanitashvili, 2014). So, when

parents have large families they may be less able to invest in their children, whether this be by

providing them adequate nutrition, healthcare or schooling (Palloni, 1999). Reher (2011)

arguedthat the decrease of women’s parity gave them more time to carry for their children. Lee

(2003) had shown that women who have to spent 70% of their adult lives, giving birth and

raising young children before the demographic transition spend only 14 per cent today.

At the macro level, the increase of TFR decrease the public expenditure by child especially the

health one as argued by Lee and Mason (2010) who have found a negative relationship between

the TFR and human capital expenditure per child in a study conducted between 1994 and 2004

in 19 countries. The reduction of the public expenditure by child may affect the availability of

the health care facilities and the provision of quality services to all children, which can in turn

increase the infant mortality risk.

With regard to births spacing, various mechanisms can be considered to explain the impact on

the infant survival like maternal nutritional depletion, suboptimal lactation related to

breastfeeding-pregnancy overlap, sibling competition, transmission of infectious diseases

among siblings and women's physiological regression (Conde-Agudelo and al., 2012). Birth

intervals less than 24 months were associated with increased risk of anaemia (Dairo and

Lawoyin, 2004). The mother anaemia during pregnancy increases the prevalence of a low

weight at birth which may affect the probability of death (Leno and al., 2017). In fact, Pebly and

al. (1991) had found that preceding birth intervals less than 24 months were associated with

increased risk of neonatal mortality. The effects of the shirt birth intervals on infant mortality

were stronger when preceding sibling died than when she/he survived (DaVanzo et al., 2008;

Blanco Villegas and Fuster, 2009).

Moreover, close births do not allow a woman to recover after childbirth, which weakens her

physical and physiological health. All this has a negative impact on the quality of care she

provides to her children and on her vigilance regarding the symptoms of serious illness of them.

Similarly, the risk of neglecting the vaccination of her children increases. The higher-ranked

children were less likely to be vaccinated (Parashar, 2005).

In the other hand, high fertility that is generally associated with early marriage and a low age

at first maternity translating a traditional system of norms characterized by unbalanced gender

relationship within the household. This imbalance is correlated to a woman's lack of autonomy.

They are not systematically involved in decision-making within their household and even

decisions regarding the use of maternal and child health care. However, this remedy could save

their life and the life of their children through adequate and timely management of

complications of pregnancy and childbirth. In the same sense, one of five women does not use

health services because of the lack of authorization from their husband (ENPSF-2018).

Indeed and despite the fact, that the woman status seems to be improved and that social

investment in a woman's body is no longer so geared towards procreation, numerous women

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URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

still suffering in a society characterized by a patriarchal dominance where the change of beliefs

and behavior is difficult (Zerari, 2006 ; Mielusel, 2015). The 2019 National Survey on Violence

against Women confirmed the persistence of conjugal violence which is more prevalent among

women whose husbands decide unilaterally on their contraception use (60.6%) compared to

that of women who decide on their own use (55.2%) or with those whose decision is taken

jointly with their husbands (50.4%) (HCP, 2019). Moreover, according to the same data source,

the mother-in law is also incriminated by married women victims of family violence (more than

25%). Effectively, the mother-in-low constitute a pole of resistance within Moroccan

households; particularly those with no-nuclear structure and she gives herself the right to make

some decisions regarding even the number of children to be born. In this context, women may

have a parity that exceeds the ideal number of children they would prefer and they will be more

exposed to physical and psychological illness, which in turns affect health and ultimately the

child survival.

This analysis should be improved if we had more observation units to take into account other

determinants of infant mortality like nutritional status and infant feeding (breastfeeding,

weaning and supplementation) , health care access and the use of health services by mothers

and children for family planning, prenatal care and childbirth, child immunization,...),

environmental conditions (water, climate pollution; rain and temperature,...), socio-economics

(education, age at first union, etc. ). Other limit of our analysis came from the fact that the data

used concerns only ever married women who were alive at the time of census. So, it did not

provide information on the survival status of births whose mothers died before the census and

who were being more exposed to. Similarly, the exclusion of unmarried mothers introduces

another bias of undetermined magnitude. Furthermore, the validity of data on child mortality

could be affected by the under-reporting of births or deaths. In our case, this risk could be

considered negligible given that the reference period "12 months before the 2014 population

census" could be considered as controllable and less affected by the memory effect.

Finally, the fact that fertility seems to be a key determinant of child survival must be relativized

as the causality also runs in the other direction. The causal relationship between infant

mortality and fertility had been a debate for long years but there is no consensus essentially

because of the lag in relationship between these two variables as argued by Chowdhury (1988).

The author believes that when a woman has multiple pregnancies, the chances of her child’s

survival are significantly reduced. A woman may thus decide to bear more children in the hope

that at least some will stay alive. A dynamic analysis is therefore essential to correctly analyze

the mortality-fertility relationship.

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Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

ANNEX A. OPERATION OF THE FIVE GROUPS OF PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS ON THE

HEALTH DYNAMICS OF A POPULATION

Source: Population and Development Review, Vol. 10, Supplement: Child Survival: Strategies for

Research (1984), pp. 25-45

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ANNEX B. ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION OF MOROCCO

Region Province/ Prefecture

Population

2014 Total area Density

Number % (in

km2) % (inhabitants/km2)

Tanger- Tétouan-Al

Hoceïma

Tanger-Assilah, M’diq- Fnideq, Tétouan, Fahs-Anjra,

Larache, Al Hoceima,

Chefchaouen and Ouazzane

3 540

012 10.5 17262 2.4 205.1

Oriental

Oujda-Angad, Nador,

Driouech, Jerada, Berkane,

Taourirt, Guercif and Figuig.

2 302

182 6.8 90127 12.6 25.5

Fès-Meknès

Fez, Meknes, Hajeb, Ifrane,

Moulay Yacoub, Sefrou,

Boulmane, Taounate and

Taza,

4 216

957 12.5 40075 5.6 105.2

Rabat-Salé- Kénitra

Rabat, Salé, Skhirat-Témara,

Kénitra, Khémisset, Sidi

Kacem and Sidi Slimane.

4 552

585 13.5 18194 2.6 250.2

Béni Mellal- Khénifra

Beni Mellal, Azilal, Fqih

Bensaleh, Khénifra and

Khouribga

2 512

375 7.5 41033 5.8 61.2

Casablanca- Settat

Casablanca, Mohammedia,

El Jadida, Nouaceur,

Mediouna, Benslimane,

Berrechid, Settat and Sidi

Bennour.

6 826

773 20.3 19448 2.7 351.0

Marrakech- Safi

Marrakech, Chichaoua, Al

Haouz, Kelaa Sraghna,

Essaouira, Rhamna, Safi and

Youssoufia

4 504

767 13.4 39167 5.5 115.0

Drâa- Tafilalet

Ouarzazat, Midelt, Tinghir

and Zagora

1 627

269 4.8 115592 18.6 14.1

Souss- Massa

Agadir Ida-Outanane- Inezgane Aït Melloul,

Chtouka Aït Baha,

Taroudante, Tiznit and Tata.

2 657

906 7.9 53789 7.6 49.4

Guelmim- Oued Noun

Guelmim, Assa-Zag, Tan- Tan, Sidi Ifni, 414 489 1.2 46108 6.5 9.0

Laâyoune- Sakia El

Hamra

Laâyoune, Boujdour, Tarfaya

and Smara 340 748 1.0 140018 19.7 2.4

Dakhla- Oued Ed- Dahab

Oued-Eddahab and

Aousserd. 114 021 0.3 130998 18.4 0.9

National 33 610

084 100 710850 100 47.3

Source: Ministry of the Interior

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Sciences Research Journal, 9(11). 158-184.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.911.13422

ANNEX C. DIMENSIONS, COMPONENTS, INDICATORS, THRESHOLDS AND WEIGHTINGS

OF THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX

Dimensio

n Component Indicator: definition of deprivation Weighting Education

Children's education If one of the children of school age 6-14 does not

attend school 1/6

1/3

Adult education If no member of the household aged 15 and over

has completed five years of schooling 1/6

Health

Handicap

If a member of the household is unable to perform

any of the following organic functions: vision,

hearing, walking, cognitive ability (remembering or

concentrating), body care and communication

1/6

1/3

Infant mortality If a child under 12 months died in the household 1/6

Living conditions

Potable water If the household does not have access to clean water

within a 30 minute walk from home 1/18

1/3

Electricity If the household does not have electricity 1/18

Sanitation If the household does not have a private toilet or

a healthy sanitation system 1/18

Flooring If the floor of the apartment is dirty, sand or dirt 1/18

Cooking mode If the household cooks with wood, charcoal or

manure 1/18

Asset holding

If the household does not own a car or tractor /

truck and does not own at least two of the

following items: telephone, television, radio,

motorcycle, bicycle and refrigerator

1/18

Source: HCP

[1] Maternal factors (age, parity, birth interval), environmental contamination (air,

food/water/fingers, skin/soil/inanimate objects, insect vectors), nutrient deficiency (calories,

protein, micronutrients), injury (accidental, intentional) and finally personal illness control

(personal preventive measures, medical treatment).

[2] Morocco's geographical and administrative division is reproduced in Annex B.

[3] The demographic weight of the (i)hard core of poverty, represented by the category of

households which combine the two forms of the sources of poverty, (ii) category of households

which are poor according to the multidimensional approach and not poor according to the

monetary approach, (iii) category of poor households according to the monetary approach and

non-poor according to the multidimensional approach, determines the global poverty rate.

[4] The monetary poverty rate measures the proportion of the population living below the

poverty line, conventionally defined at 60% of the median standard of living. This measurement

is therefore relative. It compares incomes within the population and does not take into account

the living conditions of low-income households.

[5] The multidimensional poverty rate gives the proportion of poor people, cumulating a

number of deprivations greater than the poverty line - at least 30% of the basic deprivations to

which households are exposed -. It expresses the ratio of the number of poor to the total number

of the population. More information is reproduced in Annex C.

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[6] Neonatal Death Quotient measures the probability of dying before reaching the exact age of

one month;Post-neonatal mortality quotient measures the probability of dying between the

first month and the exact twelfth month; Infant mortality quotient measures the probability of

dying between birth and the first birthday;

[7] The DAO approach is intended to be a palliative alternative to the difficulties of geographical,

financial and cultural accessibility encountered in rural areas. An approach that is essentially

based on social mobilization around maternal and neonatal health and the participation of all

components of the local community.

[8] Luxury and modern’; ‘Economic and social’; ’slums’; ’Old medina’.