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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal – Vol. 9, No. 3
Publication Date: March 25, 2022
DOI:10.14738/assrj.93.12005. Mbah, R. E., & Wasum, D. F. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the
USA, UK, Canada, and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3). 144-153.
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of
Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada, and Europe
Ruth Endam Mbah
Department of Business, Bethany College, Lindsborg, KS, USA
Divine Forcha Wasum
CIFE, Centre International de Formation Européenne
ABSTRACT
The popular belief worldwide is that the global financial sanctions unleashed on
Russia, the seizure of assets and properties of the oligarch friends to President
Putin for Russia’s current attack on Ukraine will cripple the Russian economy and
hinder any further attack on Ukraine. This is logical reasoning, however, the impact
of this crisis extends to the global economy. Thus, the purpose of this study is to
review the economic impact of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war on key global economic
actors, specifically, countries that have unleashed financial sanctions on Russia as
punishment like the USA, Canada, UK, and EU. This study uses the Social Contract
and the Interest Group Theories to explain the rationale behind this crisis from its
origin. Evidence from reviewed literature shows that although the consequences of
this crisis have had a fatal impact on Russia’s economy, the world economy has
begun to feel the impact of this crisis. Inflation which is already ravaging most
global economies is steadily rising due to the sharp increase in oil, natural gas, and
food prices just a few days into this crisis. Experts expect a negative impact on
household consumption, increase uncertainty, unpredictable stock swings, supply
chain disruptions, bulging utility bills, decreased investment due to political risks,
and economic growth impediments. It is therefore vital for policymakers
worldwide to seek alternative means of survival if Russia decides to react by
restricting its export of vital global commodities of which it is a significant export
leader like oil, natural gas, wheat, neon, titanium, palladium, and ammonium
nitrate.
Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, Russia Invasion, Social Contract Theory, Economic
Impact, Financial Sanctions, Interest Group Theory
INTRODUCTION
The subject of Ukraine’s sovereignty was still questionable even in the wake of the December
1991 Independence referendum due to Russia’s prolonged and open reluctance (Dragneva- Lewers & Wolczuk, 2016). After the breakdown of the socialist system, former Eastern
European satellites of the Soviet Union have systematically integrated towards Western
institutions, such as the EU and NATO. Russia, however, did not accept the Maiden
revolutionary removal of the democratically-elected Yanukovych regime and the
intensification of Western orientation in Ukraine (Pabriks & Kudors, 2015, p.78). Russia’s
hostility towards Ukraine has often been pointed out by the western world (Charap & Darden,
2014). In Russia’s eyes, Ukraine was of vital importance, and hence, Russians considered this
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Mbah, R. E., & Wasum, D. F. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada,
and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3). 144-153.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005
separation as abnormal (Dragneva-Lewers & Wolczuk, 2016). Several mainstream historians,
political scientists, scholars, journalists, and; government leaders have thought that the subject
relating to the relationship between Russia and Ukraine (Ukrainian-Russian relationship)
needed a significant consideration, especially addressing the ‘Ukrainian side of the equation’
(Sol'čanyk, 2001, p. 1).
Abnormality, instability, and conflict are what the Ukrainian-Russian relationship has been
since the fall of the Soviet Union (Kyiv and Moscow disagreement). Among a couple of other
problems that have strained the Ukrainian-Russian relationship, the following have played a
significant role: formal Soviet Union asset/debt disposal; Ukraine’s significant energy debt;
eastward expansion of NATO, border demarcation between both nations; and the situation of
the Russian minority in Ukraine (Sol'čanyk, 2001, p. 9). Malyarenko and Wolff (2018) state that
Russia’s use of “violent civil conflict in countries in its so-called Near Abroad as a means to
extend its influence in the post-Soviet space and simultaneously to reduce that of the West...
Moscow prefers a stable and friendly neighborhood and seeks to avoid a stable but hostile pro- Western neighborhood.” These authors equally expose the vulnerability of Ukraine as it is being
pushed/pulled from diverse directions- EU and NATO from the west and Russia from the east
coupled with Ukraine's internal challenges like a socio-economic crisis, weak institutions, and
internal division. The late 2013 protest in Ukraine as a result of its government’s denial to sign
a new agreement with the EU did not only pull global attention but triggered significant
challenges to its statehood leading to more internal instability (Dragneva-Lewers & Wolczuk,
2016). The end product of this protest was not only the escape of president Yanukovych from
Ukraine but the occupation of Crimea by Russia and Russia’s propagation of separatist
movements in the Eastern part of Ukraine as an attempt to protect the ethnic Russian minority
(Korovkin & Makarin, 2019).
The 2014 crisis in Ukraine led to the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych (an ally to
Russia’s interest); the signing of a trade agreement with the EU as the first path towards
membership by the interim government (pro-western) in February; and Russia’s capturing of
Crimea in April of the same year. Between 2014 and 2015 the Minsk Accord (cease-fire) was
signed by Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany; and by April 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky
(former comedian) was voted as President of Ukraine (Bigg, 2022). In January of 2021,
President Zelensky requested to join NATO resulting in Russia massing of troops at Ukraine’s
border with the excuse of training exercise, hence, a growing tension between the Western
countries, Russia and Ukraine leading to Russia’s invasion (“special military operations”) of
Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In response to this recent attack, Ukraine’s Western allies
announced heavy financial sanctions on Russia like “ restrictions on Russia's central bank and
expelling key banks off the main global payments system” (Aloisi & Daniel, 2022).
PROBLEM STATEMENT/PURPOSE/CONTRIBUTION OF THE STUDY
Russia’s 2022 attack on Ukraine and the intense economic impact on Russia due to the fierce
financial sanctions unleashed on it, “are not only inflicting an economic catastrophe on
President Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The repercussions are also menacing the global
economy, shaking financial markets and making life more perilous for everyone” (Wiseman,
2022). Russia and Ukraine are significant players in the export of oil, natural gas, coal, wheat,
and other commodities in the global market. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics
reports that both countries produce 70% of global neon which is a vital commodity in the
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production of semiconductors leading to panic with the current crisis as nations and
automakers especially are already witnessing a scarcity in computer chips. Zandi equally
observes that both countries are responsible for 13% of the global supply of titanium which is
used in the manufacturing of passenger jets as well as 30% of global palladium used in cars,
mobile phones, and dental fillings, thus, the impact of this crisis on global supply chain
(Wiseman, 2022).
Several studies have been published on the impact of past Ukraine- Russia conflicts before the
most recent crisis in 2022. Korovkin and Makarin (2019) examine the economic impact of the
2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict as trade exchange still took place between both nations despite
the beginning of the conflict. Very little academic research compilation has been made on the
2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis given that is an ongoing crisis with constantly updated information
flooding in via several news outlets. Moreso, a lot of attention is being given to the impact of the
current Russia-Ukraine crisis on Russia and Ukraine. Thus, the purpose of this study is to collate
the most recent information on the current global economic impact of this crisis with a focus
on the USA, Canada, the Uk, and European economies.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
This study is based on the Social Contract Theory and the Interest Group Theory. The Social
Contract is a long-standing political theory or philosophy established by some of the founding
fathers of modern political philosophers – Thomas Hobbes (famous for ‘Leviathan), John Locke
(known for ‘Two Treaties of Government’), and Jean Jacques Rousseau (renowned for ‘The
Social Contract’) (Mbah, 2021a). Thomas Hobbes in his publication titled ‘Leviathan’ portrays
the State of Nature as a chaotic lawless society in which mankind constantly lives with the ‘fear
of death and as such gets into a Social Contract as a pathway to peace (preservation of lives and
property). In an attempt to preserve their lives and properties, citizens (subjects) voluntarily
give away their rights and freedom in its entirety to a sovereign power who in return must
ensure their security (Mbah, 2021a; Ebenstein & Ebenstein, 2000, p. 412).
On the other hand, John Locke does not present the State of Nature as pessimistic as Thomas
Hobbes does. The State of Nature in Locke’s view is a more peaceful environment without
appropriate established institutions that can enforce law and order in an event of a dispute.
Thus, the Social Contract is needed to ensure established governmental institutions
(legislative) with the responsibility of enforcing law and order. According to Locke’s Social
Contract, legislators are trustees who ought to serve in the interest of those who voted them
into power (Ebenstein & Ebenstein, 2000, p. 430). Meanwhile, Jean Jacques Rousseau’s State of
Nature is neither as optimistic as that of Locke nor as pessimistic as that of Hobbes. His State of
Nature is characterized by each person following their interest to the point that they realize
that doing so is not effective, thus the need for a Social Contract. Unlike Locke, Rousseau
postulates that in the Social Contract, the citizens do not surrender their will to a specific
individual but rather to the community (social organizations) who they expect to ensure their
liberty, rights, and freedom (Mbah, 2021a; Elahi, 2014; Ebenstein & Ebenstein, 2000, p. 498).
Simply put, citizens of every nation get into a Social Contract either by fully or partially
surrendering their rights to the government and its institutions in exchange for policies and
laws that guarantee the preservation of life and property. This explains the continuous tension
between Russia and Ukraine over the years as each party is seeking to preserve the interest of
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Mbah, R. E., & Wasum, D. F. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada,
and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3). 144-153.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005
their respective subjects (Social Contract). In examining the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, Harris
(2020) argues that “while the Ukrainian crisis is not an ethnic conflict per se, nationalism was a
significant contributory factor in fueling the conflict and remains a relevant obstacle to its
resolution.” In a recent address, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State stated, “Russia claims
that this crisis is about its national defense, about military exercises, weapons systems, and
security agreements” (U.S. Department of State, 2022).
Apart from looking at the Russia-Ukraine tension in the light of the Social Contract theory, this
persistent tension can be analyzed using the lenses of the Interest Group theory. According to
Birkland (2016, p.158), an interest group is “a collection of people or organizations that unite
to advance their desired political outcomes in government and society.” The power of interest
groups can not be undermined because individual voices become stronger when they get
together into groups, thus, the reason why interest groups are important in the policy process.
These groups can constitute economic interest groups, political interest groups as well as public
interest groups with the sole role of protecting the interest of their respective members (Mbah,
2021b; Birkland, 2016, p. 160-161). Despite the ‘divorce’ between Ukraine and Russia,
Ukraine’s progressive Euro-Atlantic amalgamation since the 2004 Orange Revolution has
resulted in incessant tension between both countries. The European Union’s interest in a Wider
Europe Policy has tempered with regions which Russia considers as ‘Sphere of its National
Interests, (Samokhvalov, 2007). In an attempt to examine the interest of each party in the Wider
Europe or Post-Soviet Space, Samokhvalov (2007) terms the Russia-EU-Ukraine triangle a
sought of ‘zero-sum game.’ The author states that even though the
EU and Russia would like to avoid any clash in the Wider Europe, both sides have been pursuing
their strategies with the same goal in mind- shaping the Post-Soviet Space (PSS) according to
their vision... Ukraine’s European project as it is currently evolving with the support of Brussels
tends to undermine the main component of Moscow’s regional project for PSS... Therefore, as
a matter of urgency, the EU needs to think over its foreign policies in the Easter Neighborhood
with great care, bearing in mind their impact on relations with Russia, as well as Moscow’s
possible response.
The consequences of each party fostering its interest are the result of the current Russia- Ukraine 2022 crisis. According to Pabriks and Kudors (2015, p. 78-79), before Russia escalated
the invasion of Ukraine, NATO sources indicate Russia has not only supported separatists in
Ukraine, but Russian Special Forces and troops have participated in the annexation of Crimea
for the Russian Federation and fight in eastern Ukraine. They suggest that the obvious
involvement of Russia in the Ukrainian conflict has rapidly eroded the EU’s trust in Russia and
raised questions as to whether Russia can still be regarded as a reliable partner for the EU and
if the EU should decrease its economic dependence on the Russian Federation
LITERATURE REVIEW: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE 2022 CRISIS
Countries worldwide are barely recovering from the economic impact of the covid-19
pandemic, the recent 2022 Russia attack on Ukraine could worsen the situation as global
economies may witness yet another rise in commodity prices and ‘supply chain chokeholds.’
Russia is known as the ‘world’s largest supplier of wheat and in combination with Ukraine, both
countries account for almost a quarter of the sum of global export (Cohen & Ewing, 2022).
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The Economic Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on the USA
Although Russia’s attack on Ukraine is occurring several thousands of miles away from even
the nearest American city, its economic impact will be felt by millions of USA households since
the global economy and financial markets are interrelated (Egan, 2022). A reporter from CNN
Egan (2022) reports the words made by RSM economist Joe Brusuelas who said, "The average
American household is going to bear the burden of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine."
Smialek and Swanson (2022) of the New York Times report that a potential consequence of the
Russi-Ukrain crisis could be a rise in inflation due to an increase in the prices of oil and food
worldwide and would increase uncertainty in the USA. They suggest that even though unlike
Europe that imports a significant amount of its food from Russia (the world’s largest wheat
exporter), the USA imports very little from Russia but a “commodities crunch caused by a
conflict could have knock-on effects that at least temporarily drive up prices for raw materials
and finished goods when much of the world, including the United States, is experiencing rapid
inflation.” In other words, even though the USA imports an insignificant amount of oil from
Russia compare to Europe, the energy commodity market is global, thus, a change in the price
of oil in one part of the globe will eventually affect the prices of oil everywhere, including the
USA. This report also reveals that such worldwide unrest could prompt Americans to cut
consumption and other diverse economic activities leading to an impediment to the Federal
Reserve’s plans of increasing interest rates by March 2022.
Ivanova (2022) a reporter for CBS News reports that the price of oil which has been on an
increase over the past year has ‘hit an eight-year high’ due to the current Russia-Ukraine
tension and this rise in the prices might escalate if the tension becomes uncontrollable or if USA
policymakers push forward ‘another round’ of sanctions on Russia as predicted by experts. This
report equally reveals Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy worry as he
says “ If Russia makes a run on Ukraine, we could see [oil prices] over $100 a barrel next week...
That $4 is something we haven't seen in so long — it would cause shock waves across America...
If Russia's economy is going down the tubes, they're going to take the global economy with it.”
In the same light, JPMorgan equally warns that the price of oil could “easily” rise to $120 a barrel
because of this conflict (Egan, 2022). Analysts from Wall Street also expect USA stock indices to
remain unpredictable during the length of this conflict while economists fear that the conflict
will reduce the amount of money available to USA consumers for discretionary spending due to
the rise in commodities (Ivanova, 2022). An analysis by RSM reveals that if oil hits $110, the
‘year-over-year inflation rate could climb above 10%’ which has not happened since 1981 when
inflation climbed to 10% and not forgetting the fact that inflation is the ‘biggest problem facing
the US economy (Egan, 2022). A possible shortage in the global supply of vital metals like nickel,
aluminum, and palladium is powering the fear of inflation in the USA (Cohen & Ewing, 2022).
The Economic Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on Canada
Canada was the first western nation to acknowledge the independence of Ukraine on December
2nd, 1992 and both countries have had a close bilateral relationship since then. Based on this
relationship, Canada has dedicated more than $890 million in diverse forms of assistance to
Ukraine since January 2014 (Government of Canada, 2022). Experts are concerned about the
potential economic impact that the 2022 Russian attack on Ukraine could have on Canada
(inflation, cost of food, and immigration). A report from Neustaeter (2022), a reporter of CTV
News discloses that the Canadian government under the leadership of Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau is ‘prioritizing immigration applications’ for Ukraine citizens and it is worth noting
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Mbah, R. E., & Wasum, D. F. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada,
and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3). 144-153.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005
that Canada has the biggest number of Ukraine immigrants outside of Russia of about 1.3
million Ukrainians. This report also discloses Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University
professor of food distribution and policy worry about the impact of this crisis on “an already
fragile Canadian supply chain, especially when it comes to food prices.” The uncertainty
brought about by this current crisis has caused stocks to swing sharply and financials to
decrease in the past few days following the attack. An example is the fact that “the Canadian
dollar traded for 77.93 cents US Thursday compared with 78.63 cents US on Wednesday due to
the crisis” (Neustaeter, 2022). Experts predict that Canadians should expect a significant rise in
the price of gas given that Canada imports about $550 million worth of oil per year from Russia
as reported by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. The head of the Canada- Ukraine Chamber of Commerce voiced out the uncertainty that this crisis is causing on trading
relations with Canada as investors fear the political risk associated with investing in Ukraine;
“it’s very difficult. Investors are watching, especially with all the Western countries saying,
‘Don’t travel to Ukraine'” (Bharti, 2022).
The Economic Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on the UK
Just like many other western nations, the UK has been facing elevated and rising inflation with
prices increasing at a very fast rate in 30 years. Experts are concerned that the current attack
on Ukraine by Russia might push up the inflationary pressure in the months ahead and might
lead to higher interest rates as a response to higher inflation by the Bank of England (United
Kingdom Parliament, 2022). Like the USA, even though Russia is a significant exporter of gas to
several European nations, it is not to the UK but the impact of the sharp rise in oil prices in the
global market has equally affected the UK leading to a lot of uncertainty. An analyst from the
banking group Investec called Martin Young cautions that yearly household consumption of
fuel could reach £3000 (Jones, 2022). There is also a great concern about the increase of food
prices since Russia and Ukraine are both significant producers of diverse agricultural products
like wheat and a rise in inflation might place additional stress on both household and business
budgets in the UK (United Kingdom Parliament, 2022). Even though the UK produces 90% of
its wheat, farmers might have to pay more for fertilizer, which is one of Russia’s top export
commodity (Jones, 2022) and two-thirds of the ammonium nitrate fertilizers used by farmers
globally is from Russian as pointed out by British Meat Processors’ CEO, Nick Allen (Lanktree,
2022). A significant supply chain economist, Chris Rogers points out that the greatest economic
impact of this crisis on the UK and Europe in general “is very much going to be in terms of what
it means for supply chain cost inflation,” (Lanktree, 2022).
The Economic Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on Europe
Like the UK and many other nations worldwide, experts suggest that European nations will face
higher rates of inflation and a supply chain disruption due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022.
Saudi Arabia’s denial to release more oil supply to supplement that of Russia if its export
declines, would greatly impact the price of the commodity globally (Lanktree, 2022). A 2022
report from the European Council on Foreign Relations suggests that Russia’s attack on Ukraine
would significantly alter the way Europeans think about their safety since most of the “public
debate on the crisis has portrayed European governments as divided, weak, and absent” (
Krastev & Leonard, 2022). Russia is not only the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas and oil
but is the major exporter of these commodities to Europe (Bhattarai et al., 2022). Top EU
finance officials declared that although the current attack on Ukraine by Russia will slow down
the EU economic growth via rising energy prices and decreased business confidence, the
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“European Union is ready for it” (Thomas & Strupczewski, 2022). These authors also advise
that even though it would be costly to Russia, Russia (EU major energy exporter) might respond
to EU sanctions by restricting oil, gas, and coal exports to the EU, thus, leading to higher prices
on these commodities, uncertainty, and weaken consumption. European nations (import) rely
on Russia for about 25% of their oil and 40% of natural gas (Wiseman, 2022).
Christina Lagarde, the European Central Bank leader said, “What we know is that the two main
channels through which the euro area economy will be affected will be through energy, prices,
and confidence or the uncertainty channel; not so much through trade, which is limited
between Russia and the euro area... Persistent uncertainty will probably be a drag on
consumption and investment and will impede growth” (Thomas & Strupczewski, 2022).
Natural gas in Europe is about six times higher than what it was at the beginning of 2022 due
to Russia’s recent attack on Ukrain leading to a 20% rise in natural gas prices, thus, increasing
inflation and bulging utility bills (Wiseman, 2022). A forecast by the European Commission
reveals that the impact of Covid-19, supply chain limitations, and the rise in energy prices
(inflation) could drop the economic growth curve for all EU countries using the euro to 4.0% by
the end of 2022, which is below the 4.3% as predicted in November 2021 and this current
forecast is even more uncertain with Russia’s attack on Ukraine (Thomas & Strupczewski,
2022). In the same light, the chief economist at Berenberg bank voiced, “The drag from higher
prices and the negative confidence effect may lower real GDP growth in the eurozone from 4.3%
to 3.7% for 2022” (Wiseman, 2022).
CONCLUSION
The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war can be summarized in the words of Antony Blinken, the US
Secretary of State as he stated, “it’s bigger than a conflict between two countries. It’s bigger
than Russia and NATO. It’s a crisis with global consequences, and it requires global attention
and action” (U.S. Department of State, 2022). The global intensity of this cisis can be felt in
President Biden’s speech on March 08, 2022 as he said, “Russia’s aggression is costing us all,
and it’s no time for profiteering or price gouging” (The White House, 2022). Several articles
have focused on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine tension on both nations, with a primary focus
on Russia given the intense global financial sanctions currently plaguing its economy. Thus, to
deviate from the current trend of write-ups, this study is focused on the economic impact of the
recent 2022 Russia-Ukraine war on major global economic actors, specifically, those who have
unleashed intense financial sanctions on Russia like the USA, Canada, Uk, and the EU. We used
the Social Contract Theory and the Interest Group Theory in an attempt to explain the origin of
this conflict using a political philosophy lens. It is evident that each party Russia, Ukraine, and
NATO seek to secure the lives and properties of its citizens/members (Social Contract Theory)
but their strategies are stepping on each other's interests (Interest Group Theory). Ukraine’s
interest in joining NATO is a threat to Russia, who “ has repeatedly turned away from
agreements that have kept the peace across the continent for decades. And it continues to take
aim at NATO, a defensive, voluntary alliance that protects nearly a billion people across Europe
and North America, and at the governing principles of international peace and security that we
all have a stake in defending” as stated by Antony Blinken (U.S. Department of State, 2022). This
resistance led to Russia’s February 2022 attack on Ukraine followed by severed global financial
sanctions unleashed on Russia by major global economic actors. Although these sanctions
would severely impact Russia’s economy, their impact would be felt globally. From the above
pieces of literature reviewed, it is evident that this crisis would lead to higher inflation,
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Mbah, R. E., & Wasum, D. F. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada,
and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3). 144-153.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005
reduction in household consumption due to higher prices (oil, gas, wheat, minerals), supply
chain disruptions, uncertainty, economic growth impediments, reduction in investment, and
stock swings globally and in Europe in particular since both countries are significant exporters
to Europe. It is therefore important for policymakers in these countries that significantly rely
on Russia for vital commodity imports to begin negotiations on alternative means of survival if
Russia decides to react by punishing the west through restrictions on exports, as well as
sponsore ‘inhouse’ production of such vita commodities if possible. It is worth noting that is
study is limited to the economic impacts of the Russia-Ukrain war on the USA, Canada, UK, and
EU. Further research could focus on the political or social-cultural impact of this crisis.
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