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European Journal of Applied Sciences – Vol. 13, No. 1

Publication Date: February 25, 2025

DOI:10.14738/aivp.131.18321.

Paché, G. (2025). Aboard the Soviet Submarine B-59: The Crucial Role of Human Judgment During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 13(1). 409-418.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

Aboard the Soviet Submarine B-59: The Crucial Role of Human

Judgment During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

Gilles Paché

CERGAM Lab, Aix-Marseille University, France

ABSTRACT

The heroic action of Vasily Arkhipov, a Soviet officer, during the Cuban Missile Crisis

in October 1962, highlights the essential role of human judgment in moments of

extreme crisis. While artificial intelligence (AI) systems can swiftly analyze vast

quantities of data and react instantaneously to various situations, they are

constrained by inherent limitations when confronted with ethical dilemmas and

human uncertainties. In contrast to AI, Vasily Arkhipov’s decision was informed not

only by military data but also by a nuanced understanding of human and diplomatic

considerations, ultimately averting a nuclear disaster. This pivotal moment

underscores the necessity of preserving human involvement in critical decision- making contexts, where intuition and discernment are indispensable. Although AI

can offer valuable analytical insights, it cannot replicate the capacity for judgment

required to assess situations with profound moral and social implications. This

article argues that AI should serve as a complement to human decision-making,

never replacing it, especially in matters with far-reaching consequences.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence (AI), Cuban Missile Crisis, Data analysis, Decision, Ethical

dilemma, Geopolitics, Human judgment, Nuclear war.

INTRODUCTION

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 remains one of the tensest moments of the Cold War,

and its analysis by Allison and Zelikow [1] has shaped some of the most influential research in

decision theory. The conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union brought the world

to the brink of a nuclear war that could have engulfed the entire planet in devastation,

potentially resulting in the destruction of all human life. Among the critical episodes of the

crisis, the events aboard the Soviet submarine B-59 stand out as particularly significant. The

decisive intervention of second-in-command Vasily Arkhipov, who refused to authorize the

launch of the onboard nuclear torpedo, effectively prevented a catastrophic escalation [18].

Vasily Arkhipov demonstrated remarkable composure, judgment, and moral clarity at a

moment when Humanity teetered on the edge of nuclear apocalypse. This episode powerfully

underscores the irreplaceable value of human decision-making in situations of extreme crisis

and moral complexity. In some respects, it serves as a counterpoint to the breakdown of

sensemaking theorized by Weick [25] in his analysis of the tragic deaths of 13 firefighters

during a huge forest fire, where incoherent narratives led to disastrous decisions and

unnecessary loss of life.

As AI increasingly takes center stage in decision-making processes, particularly in military and

strategic domains, it is crucial to evaluate whether these technologies can—or should—

supplant human intervention in critical situations. While AI offers undeniable advantages in

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European Journal of Applied Sciences (EJAS) Vol. 13, Issue 1, February-2025

terms of speed and efficiency by processing vast amounts of data in record time, its inability to

comprehend human emotions, moral dilemmas, and unforeseen consequences represents a

significant limitation. The “B-59 episode” highlights the fact that, in moments of extreme

tension, human judgment depends on factors far beyond the scope of algorithmic analysis.

Reflection, accumulated experience, intuition, ethical reasoning, and the capacity to anticipate

the long-term implications of a decision are all qualities that elude the mechanical logic of

machines. Can we envision an algorithm, no matter how advanced, making the ethical decision

to refrain from launching a nuclear weapon when faced with a perceived threat? Such

questions, long explored in science fiction works like the Terminator film series, are becoming

increasingly urgent as AI systems encroach upon critical decision-making spheres, raising

complex ethical and strategic challenges. As Leys [11:378] aptly underlines, AI “is enabling a

new generation of weapons that will dramatically change the nature of warfare.”

This article seeks to reaffirm the fundamental and indisputable importance of human judgment

in situations of extreme crisis, using the example of “B-59 episode” and its decisive role in

preserving world peace during the Cold War as a starting point. In the first section, I analyze

the context and specific conditions faced by the Soviet submarine B-59 crew in October 1962,

emphasizing the factors that heightened tension on board and the challenges posed by limited

communication and conflicting directives. In the second section, I explore Vasily Arkhipov’s

crucial decision in depth, examining the psychological, strategic, and ethical dimensions of his

choice, as well as its broader implications for contemporary history. Finally, in the third section,

I address the current and complex challenges of strategic decision-making in the age of AI. This

discussion contextualizes the risks and opportunities presented by AI in managing the

complexity and uncertainty of major geopolitical crises, while underscoring the limitations it

may face without proper human discernment, as illustrated by the pivotal episode involving

the Soviet submarine B-59 and its historical significance for Humanity’s survival.

RETURNING TO THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT

In October 1962, the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union reached an

unprecedented peak of tension, marked by a direct confrontation between the two

superpowers [15]. This escalation followed Fidel Castro’s rise to power in Cuba on January 8,

1959, just 90 miles from the American coast, and the resounding failure of the Bay of Pigs

invasion in April 1961, during which 1,400 exiles trained by the CIA in the United States

attempted to overthrow the Communist regime [24]. The deployment of 42 Soviet missiles in

Cuba—36 medium-range missiles (approx. 1,000 miles) and 6 intermediate-range missiles

(approx. 2,200 miles) (see Illustration 1)—in response to the stationing of American missiles

in Turkey and Italy further destabilized an already fragile geopolitical landscape. This

escalation heightened fears of an imminent military confrontation, drawing global attention to

the looming specter of nuclear annihilation. The crisis intensified when the United States

discovered Soviet military installations in Cuba following weeks of aerial surveillance. Acting

on the advice of Defense Secretary Robert McNamara [10], President John F. Kennedy imposed

a naval blockade to prevent further Soviet shipments, risking a direct confrontation [13].

Though officially renamed a “quarantine” by John F. Kennedy to downplay its severity, the

measure was widely perceived as an act of war, carrying the very real risk of triggering a full- scale nuclear conflict [2].

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Paché, G. (2025). Aboard the Soviet Submarine B-59: The Crucial Role of Human Judgment During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. European Journal

of Applied Sciences, Vol - 13(1). 409-418.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.131.18321

The decision to impose a naval blockade was bold, striking a precarious balance between

military intervention and the hope for a diplomatic resolution. However, it exposed the world

to the risk of uncontrollable escalation in a context where military confrontation seemed

increasingly inevitable, and diplomacy was pushed to its limits. The United States, despite its

position of strength as a superpower, faced an extraordinarily fragile situation where any

misstep could ignite a full-scale nuclear war, threatening not only the three nations involved

but the survival of Humanity itself. John F. Kennedy also had to mitigate the risk of Soviet

misinterpretation of American intentions, further complicating his strategy of confrontation

while preserving a path to diplomacy. Allison and Zelikow [1] vividly depict how John

F. Kennedy’s leadership enabled him to skillfully “navigate” the competing pressures of military

advisors, such as the hawkish General Curtis LeMay, who pushed for an airstrike, and political

advisors like his brother Robert Kennedy and Adlai Stevenson, the U.S. Ambassador to the

United Nations, who advocated for diplomacy to avert nuclear catastrophe and pave the way

for a peaceful resolution.

Illustration 1: Map of the range of nuclear missiles in Cuba, 1962 (U.S. declassified document)

Source: By courtesy of the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library & Museum.

The Soviet submarine B-59, at the heart of this global crisis, vividly illustrates the immense

pressure faced in the field. As part of a Soviet flotilla deployed to counter American military

escalation, the submarine was armed with a nuclear torpedo and found itself surrounded by

U.S. naval forces, effectively placing its crew in a state of near captivity. Cut off from the outside

world and unable to establish contact with Moscow, the crew endured harsh conditions,