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European Journal of Applied Sciences – Vol. 12, No. 4
Publication Date: August 25, 2024
DOI:10.14738/aivp.124.17420
Salva, K. K., & Irfan, Z. B. (2024). Evaluating India's 2030 Electricity Demand Target: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach.
European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(4). 437-459.
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Evaluating India's 2030 Electricity Demand Target: A Multi- Criteria Decision-Making Approach
Salva, K. K.
Madras School of Economics,
Gandhi Mandapam Road, Chennai 600025, Tamil Nadu, India
Zareena Begum Irfan
Madras School of Economics,
Gandhi Mandapam Road, Chennai 600025, Tamil Nadu, India
ABSTRACT
The aim of this research study is to assess the feasibility of meeting India's
forecasted electricity demand by generating half of it from renewable sources by
2030 with minimal cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To achieve this
objective, the study examines alternative options for generating the projected
electricity demand for 2030 using a multi-objective optimization approach. The
study utilizes GHG emissions estimated using a life cycle approach and Levelized
Cost of Electricity projected by the International Energy Agency as input
parameters for optimization. The genetic algorithm in MATLAB is used to examine
alternative energy pathways under various scenarios, with constraints imposed by
the availability of energy resources and the share of renewable energy. The best
option is selected using a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method called
TOPSIS. The results of the study suggest that the most cost-effective and emission- reducing approach to meet India's 2030 electricity demand is to increase the
share of renewable energy sources. Even with the share of renewable energy
remaining at the current level of 2022, optimization can still reduce costs by
26.5% and emissions by 87% compared to the business-as-usual scenario.
Additionally, the study provides various options for meeting the 2030 target for
electricity generation at lower cost and emission levels. The findings of this study
have important implications for understanding the feasibility of India's renewable
energy target and its potential impact on cost and emission reductions.
Keywords: Multi-objective optimization, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Life cycle
Emission, Levelized Cost of Electricity, Renewable and Non-Renewable energy. JEL Code
classification: C61, O13, Q42
INTRODUCTION
India, as the third-largest global emitter of CO2, plays a significant role in addressing climate
change. Recent reports from COP27 highlighted that India's emissions have increased by an
average of 3.8% per year over the last century, with a projected increase of 6% in 2022.
Moreover, the carbon intensity of India's power sector surpasses the global average(India
Energy Outlook 2021 – Analysis - IEA). In India's 3rd Biennial Update Report (INDIA_ BUR- 3_20.02.2021_High), the energy sector was found to contribute 75% to the nation's total
emissions. Within the energy sector, electricity production stood out as the dominant
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European Journal of Applied Sciences (EJAS) Vol. 12, Issue 4, August-2024
contributor, accounting for 53% of the sector's emissions and 40% of the total emissions.
Consequently, the energy sector has gained particular attention in India's climate actions and
the climate targets set by the nation. India possesses a diverse power sector that encompasses
a range of sources, including conventional options such as coal, natural gas, oil, hydro, and
nuclear energy, as well as unconventional sources like wind, solar, and bio-waste (cycles &
Text). However, India continues to heavily rely on thermal sources, primarily coal, to meet its
electricity demand. As of October 2022, fossil fuel sources accounted for approximately 57%
of the country's installed electricity generation capacity(Year- End Review 2022- Ministry of
New and Renewable Energy). Nevertheless, India has been actively accelerating its clean
energy transition by reducing reliance on fossil fuels and promoting renewable energy
sources. As of 2021, India ranked fourth in both wind power and solar power capacity, as well
as overall renewable power installed capacity (Power Sector in India). India has set ambitious
targets for itself, aiming to derive 50% of its energy requirement from renewable energy
sources by 2030. Despite these efforts, India's energy demand has been steadily increasing,
more than doubling since 2000. The 29th Electric Power Survey conducted by the Central
Electricity Authority (CEA) projected India's electricity demand for 2030 to reach
2,172,304,000 MWh (Long_Term_Electricity_Demand_Forecasting_Report). Meeting this
growing energy demand and achieving energy targets is crucial. However, the pressing
climate issues and India's growing share of global emissions necessitate the identification of
pathways to meet the forecasted demand with minimal impact on the climate and the
environment. Therefore, the objective of this research paper is to explore alternative options
to meet the forecasted electricity demand and the energy target of increasing the share of
renewable energy while minimizing costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To achieve
this objective, a multi-objective optimization method will be employed. Additionally, the
paper proposes the use of TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal
Solution) as a decision-making tool to determine the best alternative pathway for sustainably
meeting India's energy demand and targets.
The paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a comprehensive review of the existing
literature, highlighting relevant research and studies. Section 3 describes the methodology
employed in this study. Section 4 presents the empirical findings derived from the research. In
Section 5, the results are discussed in detail, analyzing their implications and significance.
Finally, Section 6 concludes the paper, summarizing the key findings and providing policy
recommendations for India's sustainable energy future.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Adedeji et al., (2020) conducted a study to examine the options for producing electricity in
Brunei Darussalam with minimum cost and emission. The researchers used a two-stage
approach, including multi-objective optimization and TOPSIS. They utilized life cycle
greenhouse gas emissions and levelized cost of energy as inputs for the optimization process.
The study revealed that if the forecasted electricity demand was met without selecting the
optimal options and upgrading renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of
electricity production would be significant. Optimization, however, resulted in a reduction in
emissions and cost of electricity production compared to the business-as-usual scenario. If
renewable energy capacity was upgraded and alternative sources were included, the
emissions could be reduced significantly. However, in the TOPSIS results, the highest-ranked
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Salva, K. K., & Irfan, Z. B. (2024). Evaluating India's 2030 Electricity Demand Target: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach. European Journal
of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(4). 437-459.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.124.17420
alternatives were from the business-as-usual scenario, with a preference for natural gas due
to its relatively lower cost compared to various renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, this
scenario was unable to achieve Brunei's energy target for 2035.
Lee & Chang (2018) conducted a study to rank five renewable energy sources in Taiwan,
namely wind, solar PV, hydro, biomass, and geothermal energy, from social, technical,
economic, and environmental perspectives. They employed four Multi-Criteria Decision
Analysis (MCDA) approaches and examined the criteria weight using Shannon's entropy
method. The study found that technology was the most important factor driving the
development of renewable energy, followed by financial, environmental, and social aspects. In
terms of individual criteria, efficiency was found to be the most important, followed by job
creation and O&M cost. The study concluded that Hydro was the optimal alternative based on
all four MCDA approaches, with solar PV and wind ranking second and third, respectively,
while biomass and geothermal were ranked the lowest.
Their sensitivity analysis showed that rankings depends on the weightage assigned to each
criterion. When importance was given to the financial perspective, hydro was found to be the
best solution, followed by wind, solar PV, biomass, and geothermal. From technical
perspective also, hydro was the best choice. To minimize the environmental impact, wind
power was the best choice and geothermal the 2nd best. Finally, the study found that social
acceptance was higher for solar PV and lowest for biomass.
Ranganath & Sarkar (2021) conducted a study to determine the techno-economic feasibility of
solar PV projects in India. The authors collected data directly from solar projects in six states,
including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, New Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu,
covering the period from 2010 to 2020. They calculated the Levelized Cost of Electricity
(LCOE) generation from solar panels, and found that the cost of solar panels, which is a major
cost component in solar projects, has been declining over the years. Moreover, the payback
period for the investment in solar power plants was found to be less than 30% of the project
life cycle, indicating the economic viability and feasibility of solar energy in India.
Saraswat & Digalwar (2021) conducted a study to evaluate the sustainability of different
energy sources in India using an integrated fuzzy MCDM approach. They used fuzzy AHP to
determine the weight of various criteria and fuzzy TOPSIS to rank the energy sources. The
sustainability criteria considered were from economic, technical, social, environmental,
political, and flexible aspects. Seven energy sources, namely thermal, gas, nuclear, solar, wind,
biomass, and hydro were analyzed.
The findings revealed that economics was the most significant criterion in determining the
sustainability of energy sources followed by environmental and technical criteria. The other
criteria, including political, social, and flexibility, were comparatively less important. Solar
energy was found to be the most sustainable energy source, followed by wind, hydro,
biomass, gas-power, nuclear, and thermal energy. The study revealed that renewable energy
sources, especially solar, wind, and hydro, were more preferred in all criteria, indicating that
renewable energy was the most suitable energy source for India in terms of sustainability.