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European Journal of Applied Sciences – Vol. 12, No. 3
Publication Date: June 25, 2024
DOI:10.14738/aivp.123.17043
Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of
Analysis for Earthquake Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake Forecasting
Nikola Solarić
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb, Hrvatska
Miljenko Solarić
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb, Hrvatska
Đuro Barković
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb, Hrvatska
Mladen Zrinjski
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb, Hrvatska
Zlatko Bogdanovski
Civil Engineering Skopje, S. Makedonija
Sasha Dimevski
Civil Engineering Skopje, S. Makedonija
A. Postalovski
Civil Engineering Skopje, S. Makedonija
Keywords: GNSS (are global navigation satellite system), and there are several types:
GPS, GLONAS, GALILEO, KOMPAS), GPS (USA Global Navigation system), GLONASS
(Russian Global Navigation Satellite System), GALILEO (European global navigation
system, COMPAS (Chinese global navigation system)
INTRODUCTION
Today, larges and compressions of terrain can be measured very precisely using satellites of
the GNSS (global navigation satellite system). GNSS consists of GPS (USA) (Fig. 1.), GLONASS
(Russian), GALILEO (European), and COMPAS (Chinese) system. GPS global positioning
system) satellites orbit (Fig.2.) the Earth at an altitude of 20,200 km from the Earth’s surface
in six orbital planes, so that the GPS receiver on Earth can always receive signals from at least
four satellites.
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Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake
Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.123.17043
Fig 1: GPS (USA)
Fig 2: Trajectories of GPS satellites 20,200 km above the surface of the Earth in 6 orbital planes
so that the GPS receiver on Earth can always receive signals from at least 4 of the satellites.
Fig 3: Precise GPS antenna Zephyr usually on the roof cadastre building. 24 hours/day
By measuring the time of the signal from the satellite to the antenna, the GNSS satellites
coordinates of the antenna aired determined.
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3 lengths and a clock correction in the receiver are calculated from the time measurement.
antenna coordinates are calculated by arc section 3 length.
GPS satellites transmit radio signals, and at the moment of transmitting the signal, the satellite
writes the time of the signal on the atomic clock in the satellite and the number of the satellite
that sent the signal. When the signal reaches the Earth to the antenna, the receiver writes the
time from the electronic clock in the receiver into that signal. The distance to the satellite can
be calculated from the time of receiving the signal and the time of sending the signal.
From observations on 4 satellites, 4 lengths to the satellites are obtained, and from them, arc
section, the coordinates of the antenna X Y Z and the correction of the clock U in the receiver
can be calculated. In order to achieve greater accuracy and precision, satellite measurements
are processed with the Bernise program package. The method of determining the coordinates
of the antennas is very precise, including the calculation of the lengths between multiple
antennas.
Today, it is the most precise method of measuring long distances.
GNSS the receiver has its own electronic clock.
Fig 4: Reference station
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Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake
Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.123.17043
Fig 5: Main GPS observation stations
Fig.6: By measuring at least 4 satellites, the coordinates of the XYZ position and the clock
correction in the receiver are determined.
Increase in Accuracy
1955. ± 100 m (triangulation Finland)
1965. ± 10 m - the first global network
1975. ± 1 m - by improving laser measurements
1985. ± 0.1 m - from the modernized TRANSIT system USA).
1995. ± 0.01 m - IGS network (Intelligence Gathering Satellite)
from GPS measurements
2022. approximately slightly weaker than ± 1 mm
So that surveyors could measure lengths with only one GPS and that they would be
determined, and the compression of the Earth's crust usually set up GNSS permanent
reference stations. Such a network of reference stations in Croatia is called CROPOS, and in
Serbia ARGOS. So that surveyors could measure lengths with only one GPS and that they
would be determined, and the compression of the Earth's crust usually set up GNSS
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permanent reference stations. Such a network of reference stations in Croatia is called
CROPOS fig.7., and in Serbia ARGOS. GNSS reference stations in Croatia in the CROPOS
network (marked in black as dots) fig.7. In neighbouring countries, GNSS reference stations
whose measurement data are exchanged with Croatia are marked with various colours.
EARTHQUAKE NEAR KRALJEVO ON NOVEMBER 3. 2010.
Analysis of length changes before and after the magnitude 5.4 earthquake at a depth of 10 km
near Kraljevo in 2010. In the Geodetic Service magazine no. 114 of Bosnia and announced that
the work was published. Then through them we got that work and what are the measured
lengths between GNSS points from 24-hour measurements for each day near the epicentre of
the earthquake.
Fig.7: Netz CROPOS
Fig.8: Reference stations
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Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake
Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.123.17043
They did not observe significant changes in geodetic coordinates for geodetic purposes in
ARGOS's network of reference stations near the epicentre of the earthquake fig. 8.
They chose the 4 closest reference stations near the epicentre of the earthquake and
calculated we have in EXCEL daily length changes for 6 days before the earthquake and 5 days
after the earthquake and showed them graphically as they changed over time.
We calculated the daily length changes in Excel and presented them graphically in time, fig.9.
Fig. 9: Daily length changes, 10.01.2010. almost all lengths were shortened, and in 2 days
there was an earthquake in Kraljevo.
They chose the 4 closest reference stations near the epicentre of the earthquake, and we are
calculated in EXCEL the daily length changes for 6 days before the earthquake and 5 days after
the earthquake and showed them graphically fig. 9. as they changed over time. We calculated
the daily lengths and displayed them on the graph.
We saw that day lengths shortened on 1/11/ 2010, fig.9. especially the length which were
closer to the future epicentre of the earthquake. Based on that, you can approximately
estimate where the future epicentre of the earthquake will probably be, and according to the
size of the compression, the intensity of the future earthquake can also be approximately
estimated.
Then we analysed the daily changes in longitude in Croatia during the earthquake in Drežnica
in 2013. Magnitude 4.6 according to Richter. We chose 4 CROPOS reference stations near the
epicentre of the earthquake fig. 10, in order to analysed daily length changes.
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Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake
Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.123.17043
after the earthquake in Skopje, 19 days before the earthquake and 12 days after the
earthquake fig.12.
After that, we analysed the daily length changes during the 2016 Skopje earthquake [3] of
magnitude 5.2 on the Richter scale. The analysis of daily changes in length during an
earthquake was made with the MAKPOS system. We selected 3 reference stations near the
epicentre and one in Skopje. After that, we calculated the daily length changes before and
after the earthquake in Skopje, 19 days before the earthquake and 12 days after the
earthquake. The compression of the terrain started on 28.07.2013. and the earthquake 3 days
later. The analysis of the daily changes in length during the earthquake using the MAKPOS
system. We chose 3 reference stations near the epicentre and one in Skopje. After that we
calculated the daily length changes before and after the earthquake in Skopje, 19 days before
the earthquake and 12 days after the earthquake. After that, we analysed the daily length
changes during the 2016 Skopje earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on the Richter scale, at a depth
of 4 km. The analysis of the daily changes in length during the earthquake was made using the
MAKPOS system. We chose 3 reference stations near the epicentre and one in Skopje. After
that we calculated the daily length changes before and after the earthquake in Skopje, 19 days
before the earthquake and 12 days after the earthquake. After that, we calculated sex daily
length changes before and after the earthquake in Skopje, 19 days before earthquake and 12
days after the earthquake. The until a small compression occurred on August 24, 2016. and in
2 days until a small earthquake.
Fig.12: MAKPOS near Skopje.
After that, we analysed the daily length changes during the 2016 Skopje earthquake of
magnitude 5.2 on the Richter scale, at a depth of 4 km. The analysis of the daily changes in
lengths during the earthquake were made using the MAKPOS system. We chose 3 reference
stations near the epicentre and one in Skopje. After that we calculated the daily length
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Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake
Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.123.17043
Fig. 15: Earthquake analysis in Zagreb and the surroundings we did using 3 quadrilaterals with
diagonals and one triangle with central point.
Fig 16: Earthquake in Zagreb
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From the graph, we can see that after greater compressions of the terrain, there were
earthquakes for 2 days or 3 days fig.16. Based on this result of the analysis, the Crisis
Commission, with a short consultation with seismologists, can very carefully announce that an
earthquake could occur in the next few days and that people should beware of the collapse of
buildings. Most seismologists think that it is impossible to predict the arrival of an
earthquake. At the Department of Geophysics in Zagreb, several papers were published which
at that time established that earthquakes cannot be predicted (Prof.Ph.D. Snježana Markušić,).
Today with satellites it is possible to forecast an earthquake.
In Zagreb, we examined the daily changes in longitude in the blue quadrangle and graphically
presented how they changed over time. Before the main earthquake, there was a minor
compression on 03/12/2020. and a minor earthquake after 2 days. The main compression
was on 03/20/2020. and after 2 days main earthquake.
We analysed 4 major earthquakes.
From the graph, we can see that after greater compressions of the terrain, there were
earthquakes for 2 days or 3 days. Based on this result of the analysis, the Crisis Commission,
with a short consultation with seismologists, can very carefully announce that an earthquake
could occur in the next few days and that people should beware of the collapse of buildings.
Most seismologists think that it is impossible to predict the arrival of an earthquake. At the
Department of Geophysics in Zagreb, several papers were published which at that time
established that earthquakes cannot be predicted (Prof. Ph. D Snježana Markušić.). Today with
satellites it is possible to predicted earthquake ahead.
After that, we analysed the daily length changes during the 2016 Skopje earthquake of
magnitude 5.2 on the Richter scale. The analysis of the daily changes in length during the
earthquake was made using the MAKPOS system. We chose 3 reference stations near the
epicentre and one in Skopje. After that we calculated the daily length changes before and after
the earthquake in Skopje, 19 days before the earthquake and 12 days after the earthquake.
Table 3: Earthquakes that we analysed using our method.
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The prosecution, on the other hand, claimed that the seismologists made their assessment
without a deeper analysis. They didn't have any measuring method back then to predict an
earthquake. The unsubstantiated information from the experts led the victims to stay in their
homes, and if they had only mentioned the possibility of a stronger earthquake, probably
many people would have been more careful and survived the disaster, had there not been 300
victims of the earthquake.
Members of the Crisis Commission were tried for manslaughter, destruction of buildings and
causing serious injuries because a week before the earthquake, hey made a statement that
there was no danger of a major earthquake in L'Aquila, and they eliminated the possibility of a
strong earthquake.
A major earthquake occurred in L’Aquila in 2009 with magnitude of 6.3 on the Richter scale.
300 people died. The court was initiated against the members of the Crisis Commission,
because they gave false information that there would be no major earthquake. At the next
session of the court, with a long session, they were still released. If they had made a statement
that there probably wouldn't be a big earthquake, they wouldn't have been judged, because
people would still have been careful and there wouldn’t have been so many 300 dead people.
In all cases of stronger earthquakes that we analysed, two to three days after stronger
compression of the Earth's crust, a larger earthquake occurred. After minor compressions,
minor.
Earthquakes occurred several days later.
If an earthquake like the one in 1880 were to occur in Zagreb today, 1⁄4 of the city would be
razed to the ground, and 3,000 inhabitants would die (according to the internet).
If an earthquake of the same intensity as in Petrinja had occurred today in Zagreb, 1⁄4 of the
city would have been razed to the ground, and 3,000 inhabitants would have died (according
to the internet).
They would suggest that the director of the State Geodetic Administration, which has
expensive equipment, Ph.D. Marijan Marjanović, the dean of the Faculty of Geodesy, and the
director of the Geophysical Department and the Crisis Staff and agree on how to finance it.
Thanks: We are very grateful to Professor Ph. D Eugen Prelogović for his advice. We hope that
during the next major earthquake in Zagreb, if this method is applied, there will be fewer dead
and injured citizens. Zagreb, not like in 1880 and in other poor areas of Croatia and the world
on compression Faults.
We would like to thank all our colleagues for their help.
We would also like to thank Antica Roka Solarić, and architect Sanja Veršić, who encouraged
us to work in this area, even though we did not have this project financed.
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Solarić, N., Solarić, M., Barković, Đ, Zrinjski, M., Bogdanovski, Z., Dimevski, S., & Postalovski, A. (2024). On the Method of Analysis for Earthquake
Forecasting. European Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol - 12(3). 324-337.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/aivp.123.17043
Some colleagues told me why I was getting involved in seismic. We have seen today that this
method is the pure state-of-the-art geodetic method of measuring great length. Today, various
branches of science are intertwined. Prof. Ph.D. Nikola Čubranić Some colleagues told me why
I was interfering in seismic. We have seen today that this method is the pure most modern
geodetic method of measuring a large length.
Some colleagues asked me how I came up with the idea of prediction earthquakes? Prof. Ph.D.
Nikola Neihardt (Faculty of Forestry) announced in the 1960s that surveyors had discovered
that are also Earth's tides crusts. That's why I tried to look at how the Earth's crust behaves
before an earthquake.
References
Solaric N., Solaric M. (2012): Prijedlog da se u Zagrebu i okolici uz CROPOS-ove stanice postavi nekoliko GPS
(GNSS) permanentnih stanica za geodinamiku i moguću najavu većeg zemljotresa u slijedećem periodu vremena
(Proposal for Zagreb and Surroundings a few GNSS permanent stations for geodynamics and possibility the
announcement of larger earthquake in the future period), Geodetski list, Vol. 66 (92, 149-164(Croatia).
http://hrcak.srce.hr/95827.
Solaric N., Solaric M., Pejakovic M. (2017): Dva dana prije potresa u Drežnici 2013. godine došlo je do kompresije
terena (Two days before the Earthquake in Dreznica 2013 there has been compression of terrain), Geodetski list,
Vol. 71 (94), No. 3, 203-214. (Croatia) https://hrcak.srce.hr/index.php?show=clanak&id
Solaric N., Solaric M., Bogdanovski Z., Dimeski S. (2018): Three days before the Earthquake in Skopje there was a
compression of the Earth's crust, Geodetski list, Vol. 72 (95), No. 1, 15-35 (2018), https://hrcak.srce.hr/200222.
Solaric N., Solaric M. (2020): Proposal for Zagreb and Surroundings a few GNSS permanent stations for
geodynamics and possibility the announcement of larger earthquake in the future period), Geodetski list, Vol. 66
(92, 149164 (Croatia). http://hrcak.srce.hr/95827.
We have a reviewed chapter of the book published in Intechopen.com.
The Possibility of Earthquake Forecasting, A Few Days before the Earthquake using GNSS Satellites, WRITTEN
BY Nikola Solarić and Miljenko Solarić the Possibility of Earthquake Forecasting, a Few Days before the
Earthquake Using GNSS Satellites, December 2022
In book: Earthquakes - Recent Advances, New Perspectives and Applications [Working Title] OI:
10.5772/intechopen.10884 Reviver Dr Walter Salazar write „The Chapter written by Solaric brothers present a
fantastic application of GPS satellites for, analysing the distance changes amongst different Earth stations before
and after an occurrence”. Hower, I would like to write soma comments that might improve the quality of the
manuscript.