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Archives of Business Research – Vol. 10, No. 12

Publication Date: December 25, 2022

DOI:10.14738/abr.1012.13556. Singh, H. P., & Alhamad, I. A. (2022). A Data Mining Approach to Predict Key Factors Impacting University Students Dropout in a

Least Developed Economy. Archives of Business Research, 10(12). 48-59.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

A Data Mining Approach to Predict Key Factors Impacting

University Students Dropout in a Least Developed Economy

Harman Preet Singh

Department of Management and Information Systems

College of Business Administration, University of Hail

PO Box 2440. Ha'il – 81451, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Ibrahim Abdullah Alhamad

Department of Management and Information Systems

College of Business Administration, University of Hail, PO Box 2440

Ha'il – 81451, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT

University students’ dropout is a complex issue with life and career ramifications,

especially in least developed countries. Ethiopia, a country with one of the least

developed economies, has made considerable efforts to strengthen its higher

education; yet university student attrition remains a major concern. In this study,

we utilized the data mining methodology to revealthe important factors that impact

dropout among the Ethiopian university students. The current research results

indicate that personal, institutional, and academic factors affect university student

dropout. In Ethiopia, low-performing rural female students are more likely to drop

out than male students, according to the findings of this study. In general, rural low- achieving students have a greater likelihood of dropping out of university. This is

likely to occur during the students' first semester of study, especially if they have a

poor attendance rate. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by

indicating that university remedial programs may be successful in reducing the

incidents of students’ dropout. The current research has implications for

policymakers in the least developed nations, such as Ethiopia, to construct dropout

intervention programs based on the factors identified in this research.

Key Words: Attrition, Dropout, Ethiopia, Higher education, Least developed economy,

University students

INTRODUCTION

The socio-economic growth of a nation is especially dependent on its education system (Singh

et al., 2013; Alam et al., 2022), especially university education. A strong university education

can offer the qualified personnel needed for scholarly, expertise-oriented, industry, and

management positions (Singh et al., 2022a; Singh & Chand, 2012). By delivering relevant

knowledge, university education helps to expand people’s efficiency, effectiveness, capabilities,

and employment opportunities (Singh et al., 2022b; Alam et al., 2022). University education

plays a vital role in developing innovation capabilities (Tapanjeh & Singh, 2015) and

managerial competencies (Alshammary & Singh, 2017) in an economy. Without an adequate

number of universities to produce the necessary educated labor force, no country can

experience authentic, viable, and endogenic growth (UNESCO, 1998).

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Singh, H. P., & Alhamad, I. A. (2022). A Data Mining Approach to Predict Key Factors Impacting University Students Dropout in a Least Developed

Economy. Archives of Business Research, 10(12). 48-59.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.1012.13556

Student dropout is a complex issue with grave consequences for the life and careers of students

in all developing and developed nations, but it is an even greater problem in the least developed

nations (Fernandez-Garcia et al., 2021) like Ethiopia. Ethiopia began its pursuit of higher

education in 1950 when University College of Addis Ababa was founded. In the twenty years

that followed, six specialized technical institutions were formed (Saint, 2004). These institutes

of higher education initially had some success in meeting international norms. However, by the

close of 20th century, Ethiopia higher education system had concerns about declining

educational quality and poor connectivity with scholarly thoughts of the international

community, particularly with regard to the completion of education (World Bank, 2003).

The challenge of producing quality manpower is related to the vital question of completion of

education (UNESCO, 2015). One of the major obstacles faced by Ethiopian education system is

the high rate of student dropout (Singh & Alhulail, 2022). Ethiopia faces a major problem of

student dropout at its primary as well as higher education. Despite shortage of comprehensive

studies that suggests the precise dropout rate in higher education in Ethiopia, there exists

consensus among Ethiopian higher education experts that students’ dropout is a major issue. A

study done by Abeyayehu (1998) suggests the dropout rate in higher education from 10 to 15

percent. As per Kahsay (2012), attrition rates (includes failures and dropouts) in Addis Ababa,

Jigjiga and Mekelle Universities are 24%, 27% and 24% respectively.

Since success in university education defines most student’s chances of getting a meaningful

job, it is crucial to predict the key factors that impact the dropout of university students. This is

especially true in a least developed country, such as Ethiopia, where higher education is

considered as the sole means of breaking the cycle of poverty (Singh & Alhulail, 2022). So,

dropping out of universities has an adverse effect on the Ethiopian students’ career.

Consequently, it is essential to undertake a study to determine the causes of student attrition

from Ethiopian universities.

While past research in Ethiopia has applied quantitative (statistical, econometric) and

qualitative (interviews, observations, focus group) methodologies (Melese & Fenta, 2009;

Melese & Fenta, 2009; Weldegiorgis & Awel, 2013; Tiruneh & Petros, 2014; Worku, 2014;

Eshetu et al., 2018; Singh & Alhulail, 2022), there is a paucity of research that have employed

data mining tools and techniques in the context of Ethiopia. Using institution-specific data, data

mining can discover hidden patterns in the data and provide useful knowledge to the decision

makers (Alhamad & Singh, 2021). The unutilized institutional data in Ethiopian universities can

be used through data mining to design methods to prevent student dropout. Consequently, the

necessity of this research is justified by the application of data mining to the critical issue of

dropout of university students in the setting of the least developed economy (Ethiopia).

LITERATURE REVIEW ON HIGHER EDUCATION DROPOUT IN ETHIOPIA

A number of studies has been carried out that goes into the reasons for students’ dropout in

primary schools (Abeyayehu, 1998; UNESCO, 1998; World Bank, 2003; Lasonen et al., 2005;

Jennings & Poppe, 2012; Bastian et al., 2013; Biyabeyen, 2015; UNESCO, 2015). However, there

is a shortage of research work that has been done in the case of students’ dropout in Ethiopian

higher education institutions.

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Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 10, Issue 12, December-2022

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

Melese & Fenta (2009) examined the dropout of female students at Jimma University in

Ethiopia. The study utilized questionnaires, interviews, and focus-group conversations to

determine that the dropout rate for female pupils is greater than that of male pupils. The study

revealed that female students are a higher risk of dropout due to personal (gender, time- management issues, homesickness) and institutional (lack of support and guidance from the

institution, insensitivity of teachers) factors.

Mersha et al. (2013) investigated the factors that lead to the low academic success and resultant

dropout of female students at Bahirdar University, Ethiopia. They utilized surveys, analyzed

student records, and conducted interviews to clarify the factors affecting the dropout of female

students. The study indicated that personal (self-esteem, self-efficacy, self-confidence, fear of

failure, marriage, age), institutional (support from teachers, peer interactions, university

academic environment, staff sensitivity training), academic (prior academic performance,

entrance exam rank, current study grades), and economic (family income level, scholarships

availability) factors influence female students’ dropout.

Weldegiorgis & Awel (2013) conducted a study on causes of students’ dropout at Mekelle

University, Ethiopia employing econometric investigation. This study primarily employed

questionnaires to conduct statistical analyses. The study reported that personal (age, gender,

education level of mother and father, students’ preference for department, hours devoted to

study per day), academic (department, stream, performance in entrance exam, year of study),

and financial (income level) factors influence the dropout of students. The study reported that

older students have a greater chance of dropout as compared to younger learners. The study

also informed that female students are at a greater danger of dropout than male students. The

study suggested that the students pursuing education in a stream other than the stream of their

interest also influences their dropout.

Tiruneh & Petros (2014) conducted a study at Bahirdar University, Ethiopia, to reveal the

factors that influence the academic attainment and dropout of female students. They utilized

both quantitative and qualitative research techniques, such as questionnaires and interviews.

The study revealed that personal (domicile, parents education level), academic (students’

performance), institutional (teachers-students’ interactions, academic support, trainings, and

remedial classes), and economic (family income level) factors influence female students’

academic performance and dropout.

Worku (2014) conducted a study in Jimma Teachers Training College, Ethiopia to determine

the reasons for student dropout. The study employed a combination of quantitative and

qualitative methods such as questionnaires, interviews, document analysis, and observations.

The study found large number of dropout cases in all the departments, particularly Civics. The

study found that personal (occupational, adjustment issues with class timings, interest in

studies), institutional (teaching-learning environment, guidance, and support, availability of

books and study materials), and academic (prior educational background, academic

performance) factors influence the dropout of students.

Eshetu et al. (2018) conducted a study at Arba Minch University in Southern Ethiopia to identify

characteristics that impact students' propensity to drop out. They used questionnaires and

logistic regression analysis to evaluate the dropout risk of students. The study reported that